The charts will be easier to read if you adjust your screenview to zoom 125%.
Where Can I Buy a HOUSE for Under $1 million in San Francisco?
You want to buy a house in San Francisco for under a million dollars, or a condo for around $650,000, or a luxury home for over $2 million. To a large degree, if you’re buying a house in San Francisco, your price range effectively determines the possible neighborhoods to consider. That does not apply quite as much to condos and TICs: Generally speaking, in neighborhoods with high numbers of condo and TIC sales, there are buying options at a wide range of price points – though, there are exceptions to this rule, and, obviously, size, quality and amenity considerations will always come into play. It is also true that all the new condo projects being built in different areas of the city are often changing pre-existing neighborhood price dynamics.
The era, style, amenities and average size of homes will vary widely between and within neighborhoods.
The charts below are based upon sales reported to MLS in 12-month periods between March 2013 and March 2014. We’ve generally broken out the neighborhoods with the most sales within given price points. But there are neighborhoods with lesser numbers of sales, as well as exceptions to neighborhood norms scattered throughout the city. Finally, note that in an appreciating market, homes selling in the various price ranges will move upward, typically en masse.
Out of the approximately 2635 house sales in the past year, about 50% sold for under $1 million. The vast majority of these sales occur in a large swath of neighborhoods forming a giant L shape, down the west side of the city, from Outer Richmond to the border with Daly City, and then sweeping across the southern side of San Francisco to Bayview and Hunter’s Point. Generally speaking, the western and central-ish neighborhoods cost more than the southern neighborhoods in this under $1m house market.
Houses in these neighborhoods began their recovery from the market downturn a step or two behind more expensive areas in San Francisco, but now the markets here are red hot and very competitive and home prices are under strong upward pressure.
Where Can I Buy a CONDO, CO-OP OR TIC for Under $1 million?
In the general category of condo, co-op and TIC sales in San Francisco, condos make up almost 90% of sales, TICs almost 10% and stock co-ops 1 to 2%. TICs typically sell at a significant discount to similar condos, but there are a number of factors that affect the exact price differential.
Of the approximately 3300 condo, co-op and TIC sales in the past year, about 64% sold for under $1,000,000. These sales take place in virtually every area of the city that features these property types, but a studio unit in Nob Hill will cost the same as a 1 or 2 bedroom unit in Downtown. Some areas with large volumes of sales, such as South Beach/South of Market or Pacific Heights/Marina, offer units for sale at virtually every price point. In such districts, what will vary will be the prestige and amenities of the building, the size and graciousness of the unit, the floor the unit is located on, and the existence of views and deeded outside space (decks, patios, or, less often, yards).
Spending $1 Million to $1.5 Million
In this price point for houses, one moves into the big circle of neighborhoods in the middle of the city plus the Richmond District in the northwest. Within this collection of neighborhoods, one will typically get significantly more house for one’s money in the Sunset, Central or Outer Richmond, Miraloma Park or Bernal Heights than in Glen Park or Potrero Hill, or especially, Noe or Eureka Valley.
Condo, co-op and TIC sales in this price range are mostly concentrated in the more affluent districts.
Buying a HOUSE for $1.5 million to $2 million
As the price range goes up, the number of sales begin to narrow. The neighborhoods in this house price range are similar to the previous range, but sales predominate in central Realtor District 5, which comprises the greater Noe-Eureka-Cole Valleys area. District 5 has been a white hot market for the last two years, and competition for homes here is ferocious.
Buying a LUXURY HOME in San Francisco
Rather arbitrarily, houses selling for $2 million and above, and condos, co-ops and TICs selling for $1.5 million and above are designated as luxury home sales in San Francisco: these homes now make up about 14% of total home sales (up from about 10% - 11% a few years ago). Once again, what you get in different neighborhoods for $2 million can vary widely – a large, gorgeous, immaculate house in one place, a fixer-upper in another.
Luxury home sales in San Francisco are dominated by the swath of established, prestige northern neighborhoods running from Sea Cliff through Pacific Heights and Russian Hill to Telegraph Hill, by the greater Noe-Eureka-Cole Valleys district, and, to a lesser extent, the smaller neighborhoods around St. Francis Wood. For luxury condos, the greater South Beach-Yerba Buena-Mission Bay area has a large and growing presence as big, dramatic, expensive condo projects have sprouted there over the past 15 years.
Luxury CONDO, CO-OP & TIC Sales
As one can see below, no area has more luxury condo, co-op and TIC sales overall than the Pacific Heights-Marina district, but the Russian Hill-Nob Hill-Financial District area has more sales of $2 million and above, and again the South Beach-Yerba Buena area is the fastest growing luxury condo market and will probably take first position in the not too distant future. The average dollar per square foot values for luxury condos in the major neighborhoods below run $918 in the Noe, Eureka and Cole Valleys district, $961 in the Pacific Heights-Marina district, $1147 in the Russian-Nob-Telegraph Hills district, and $1229 in the greater South Beach-Yerba Buena area (think newer construction, high floor units and spectacular views).
With the construction of new high-end, high-tech-amenity, condo projects on Market Street and Van Ness, and in neighborhoods like the Inner Mission, Hayes Valley and Inner Richmond -- often selling for more than $1000 per square foot -- luxury condos are now spreading into new areas of the city.
Luxury HOUSE Sales
It wasn't so long ago that houses selling in Realtor District 5, the greater Noe/Eureka/Cole Valleys area (which includes Clarendon, Corona and Ashbury Heights), for over $2 million were outliers. But that is certainly not the case any longer. If we looked closer at the sales in the $2 million to $5 million, we'd find the higher end of the range dominated by Realtor District 7, the Pacific Heights-Marina area, the most expensive house market in the city. Though District 5 does see sales in the $3.5 to $5+ million range, most of its luxury houses sell between $2 million and $3.5 million. There are several other significant areas for these high-end houses, such as Lake Street/Sea Cliff, St. Francis Wood/Forest Hill and Lower Pacific Heights.
And finally, as illustrated below, at the very top of the luxury house market, the district of Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow and Marina completely dominates sales. Here mansions can sell for up to $20 million or $30 million. However, 2 additional house sales (both listed by Paragon) in the $5 million to $7 million range closed in Noe Valley in the first half of March 2014 (after the time period of this analysis) -- another indication of what's happening there, often driven by young, high-tech wealth. It should be noted that a fair percentage of these ultra high-end home sales occur privately, outside of MLS, and are not reflected in this chart.
Distribution of San Francisco House Sales by Sales Price
March 2013 - March 2013
This chart breaks down San Francisco houses sales by sales price segment for the 12 months ending mid-March 2014, in $250,000 segments: the $750,000 to $1,000,000 segment (dark green column) had the most sales -- the median sales price over the entire period was approximately $945,000. (Note that some of the highest priced sales were cut off in this chart.)
Distribution of San Francisco Condo & TIC Sales by Sales Price
The largest number of condo, co-op and TIC sales in San Francisco over this 12 month period was in the $700,000 to $850,000 price segment (dark green column) -- the median sales price over the period was approximately $838,000. (Note that some of the highest priced sales were cut off in this chart.)
SAN FRANCISCO REALTOR DISTRICTS
District 1 (Northwest):
Sea Cliff, Lake Street, Richmond (Inner, Central, Outer), Jordan Park/Laurel Heights, Lone Mountain
District 2 (West):
Sunset & Parkside (Inner, Central, Outer), Golden Gate Heights
District 3 (Southwest):
Lake Shore, Lakeside, Merced Manor, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights, Oceanview
District 4 (Central SW):
St. Francis Wood, Forest Hill, West Portal, Forest Knolls, Diamond Heights, Midtown Terrace, Miraloma Park, Sunnyside, Balboa Terrace, Ingleside Terrace, Mt. Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, Monterey Heights, Westwood Highlands
District 5 (Central):
Noe Valley, Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights (Castro, Liberty Hill), Cole Valley, Glen Park, Corona Heights, Clarendon Heights, Ashbury Heights, Buena Vista Park, Haight Ashbury, Duboce Triangle, Twin Peaks, Mission Dolores, Parnassus Heights
District 6 (Central North):
Hayes Valley, North of Panhandle (NOPA), Alamo Square, Western Addition, Anza Vista, Lower Pacific Heights
District 7 (North):
Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow, Marina
District 8 (Northeast):
Russian Hill, Nob Hill, Telegraph Hill, North Beach, Financial District, North Waterfront, Downtown, Van Ness/ Civic Center, Tenderloin
District 9 (East):
SoMa, South Beach, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, Dogpatch (Central Waterfront), Bernal Heights, Inner Mission, Yerba Buena
District 10 (Southeast):
Bayview, Bayview Heights, Excelsior, Portola, Visitacion Valley, Silver Terrace, Mission Terrace, Crocker Amazon, Outer Mission
Some Realtor districts contain neighborhoods that are relatively homogeneous in general home values, such as districts 5 and 7, and others contain neighborhoods of wildly different values, such as district 8 which, for example, includes both Russian Hill and the Tenderloin.
All data is from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision.
© 2014 Paragon Real Estate Group