San Francisco Real Estate Market Reports

Related Pages

• 30 Years of San Francisco Real Estate Cycles August 3, 2012; Updated May 2013
  Below is a look at the past 30 years of real estate boom and bust cycles in the San Francisco Bay Area. Financial-market cycles have been around for hundreds of years, all the way back to the Dutch tulip mania of the 1600’s. While future cycles will vary in their details, the causes, effects and trend lines are often quite similar. Looking at cycles gives us more context to how the market works over time and where it may be going -- much more than dwelling in the present with excitable pronouncements such as "The market's down!" or "The market's hot!" [Click on blog post-title for complete report and charts]
• A Hot San Francisco Market Gets Hotter April-May 2013: In 2012, the market turned with a vengeance and grew very hot very quickly. Now in 2013 it has grown even hotter. Recent deal-making stories almost make the seemingly crazy, multiple-offer tales of last year appear sedate. The supply of listings is drastically low against buyer demand, and the pace of price appreciation looks to be accelerating. Some city neighborhoods appear to be surpassing the previous peak values reached in 2007-2008. As seen below, the first quarter’s numbers reveal a big increase in home values year over year; the months of March and April individually saw particularly big jumps above February’s median price. [Click on blog post title for complete report with charts.]
• Luxury Home Market Snapshot May 2013: A quick look at the San Francisco luxury home market in April 2013 -- defined as homes selling for $1,500,000 and above.
• May 2013 Market Snapshot Two snapshot overviews of what the current market trends and conditions are for the San Francisco homes market: listings, sales, listings accepting offers, listings expiring without selling, sales with and without price reductions, average days on market and more. [Click on blog post title for the "snapshot"]
• S&P Case-Shiller Index for San Francisco Area April 30, 2013: The February 2013 S&P Case-Shiller Index report was released today and is now 13% above its reading of February 2012. The small decline from December 2012 to January/February 2013 is due to seasonal market factors, not a decline in values, and occurs every year. Based upon what we're seeing in the market, a pop in C-S values in March is very likely. The city of San Francisco itself, a relatively small part of the 5-County Metro Area market that Case-Shiller measures, has significantly outperformed the overall metro area market. [Click on the blog post title for the full report with detailed charts.]
• San Francisco Apartment Market Report May 2013: Our first quarter 2013 market update for the San Francisco Metro Area apartment building market. [Click on blog post title for full report with charts and tables.]
• San Francisco Luxury Home Market Report April 2013: In 2012, the high-end, luxury home market in San Francisco rebounded dramatically both in the quantity of sales and in the (escalating) prices at which these properties sold. So far in 2013, we don't see this market recovery slowing. In this report we look at the SF luxury home market in a wide variety of short-term and long-term statistical supply and demand analyses. [Click on the blog post title for the full report.]
  
• SF House and Condo Values by Neighborhood March 2013: Our semiannual analysis of San Francisco house and condo values by median and average sales prices, average size and average dollar per square foot values by neighborhood, property type and bedroom count. [Click on the blog post title for the complete report with tables and maps.]
• The Crunch in San Francisco's Real Estate Market February 2013 Report, Updated March 2013: A look at the dynamics of inventory, buyer demand, the financials of buying versus renting, and home value trends in San Francisco, and a perspective on existing market conditions as compared to previous market recoveries in the 1980's and 1990's. [Click on the blog post title to go to the full report with charts.]
• What Costs How Much Where in the Bay Area A selection of city-neighborhood and Bay Area-community maps showing median sales prices and/or average dollar per square foot values for recently sold homes. [Click on the blog post title to go to the maps report.]
• What SF Home-Buyers Bought in 2012 A statistical data-mining analysis in charts of what San Francisco home buyers purchased in 2012. By the Paragon Real Estate Group
• January 2013 San Francisco Report San Francisco rankings; real estate prices, conditions and trends; largest home sales of 2012, distressed home and luxury home sales, supply and demand statistics, and much more. [Click on blog post title for the full report with charts and maps]
• Marin-Napa-Sonoma Market Report Updated April 2013. Classic supply and demand dynamic leads to higher prices in Marin, Napa and Sonoma Counties: Add the repressed home-buyer demand that builds up during the years of an economic downturn to an improving economy, incredibly low interest rates and rising rents, and you get surging buyer demand. Take that increasing demand and mix it with a decreasing inventory of homes available to purchase, and you get upward pressure on prices. This dynamic reflects exactly what is happening now in the North Bay markets. [Click on blog post title for full report with charts.]
  
• SF Distressed Home Market Disappearing April 2013: In the U.S., the state, the Bay Area and San Francisco itself, a definitive trend is occurring: foreclosures are declining rapidly, which is leading to a decline in the number of bank-owned property sales, and with the dramatic home-value recovery that is taking place, the number of short sales is declining too. As the economy improves and the housing recovery continues, homeowner financial circumstances improve, home equity increases and distressed property listings and sales will continue to diminish. As this occurs, the negative effect of distressed home sales on general home values -- a huge negative factor over the past 4 years -- will decline. It becomes a virtuous circle, strengthening the housing market.
  [Click on the blog-post title to go to the full posting with charts]
• Super Hot Neighborhoods in San Francisco April 2013: The entire San Francisco real estate market has been making a dramatic recovery with significant increases in home values throughout the city, but some neighborhoods -- typically the most affluent ones and those particularly popular with high-tech buyers -- are seeing the most dramatic jumps in value. Two of these areas are the Noe Valley-Eureka Valley (Castro)-Dolores Heights cluster of neighborhoods and the South Beach-Yerba Buena neighborhoods. [Click on blog post title for full report with charts.]
• The Home Buying Process A guide to the step by step process of buying a home. [Click on the blog post title to go to the complete article.]
• Unflagging Demand Equals Higher SF Home Prices September 7, 2012
  Typically, the real estate market slows down during the summer months – a period often called the summer doldrums -- but that certainly did not occur this year in San Francisco: unflagging buyer demand continued through August. The market recovery that began in some SF neighborhoods late last year has now spread throughout the city. Bay Area, state and national home markets are also showing clear, if still early signs of turnaround.
  [Click on the blog-post title for the complete report and market charts.]
  
• Chron-Article Prices Up 25 Percent March 17, 2013. A deeper explanation of what the data in the San Francisco Chronicle article on home price changes actually signifies. [Click on blog post title for complete report.]
• Dramatic Spike in San Francisco Home Values June 2012 Real Estate Market Update
  There is so much drama in the San Francisco homes market right now that it is difficult to decide which statistics to present in our current newsletter. The supply and demand situation - huge buyer demand and extremely low inventory of homes available to purchase - has created the most ferociously competitive environment for buyers, and the best environment for sellers, in many years. This has been building since the market began turning in 2011, made a quantum jump in early 2012, and is now showing up in big increases in sales prices. Though certain neighborhoods spearheaded the recovery and are currently showing the most dramatic changes in values, pretty much all the city's neighborhoods are now experiencing a similar supply and demand dynamic.
  [For complete report, click on blog post title]
• Luxury Consumer White Paper March 2013: Luxury Portfolio White Paper on the the Luxury Consumer.
• Luxury Portfolio Magazine February 2013 New Edition of Luxury Portfolio International Magazine. This isn't really a San Francisco Market Report, but for those interested in browsing this gorgeous real estate magazine, here it is...[Click on blog post title to go to magazine.]
• October-November Statistics Reflect Strong Demand December 2012
  October-November statistics show that the market is still dominated by a high demand/ low supply/ upward-pressure-on-prices dynamic. The market typically goes into a significant slowdown for the holiday season. [Click on blog-post title to review entire report with charts]
• Real Estate as Financial Investment July 2012
  
  Why is home-buying typically considered an excellent long-term investment as well as an excellent hedge against inflation? Here’s a scenario:
  
  § One buys a house for $1,000,000 in 2012, putting down a down-payment of 20%: $200,000.
  
  § For 10 years, inflation runs at an average of 2.5% per year. For the sake of this scenario, we’ll assume inflation and appreciation are equal – obviously there are times when appreciation is higher or lower than inflation, but, generally speaking, home appreciation in San Francisco, over the longer term, generally runs significantly higher than inflation. (The median price for SF non-distressed houses basically tripled in the last 20 years – up about 200%, far above the rate of inflation.) But here we’ll assume appreciation and inflation are equal.
  
  [Click on blog-post title for full article]
• Sales Prices-Price Reductions-Days on Market June 13, 2012
  In this analysis, we look at San Francisco's house and condo sales in May 2012 from the perspective of homes selling with and without a price reduction and what effect those scenarios have on the percentage of asking price achieved in the sales price and on the average days on market (days on market = the time it takes a listing to accept an offer). Then we have the statistics on how many home listings sold above, at or under asking price, and how many expired without selling. Since May was a very hot market -- extremely high market demand and extremely low inventory -- the statistics are the most dramatic they've been in years, probably since the last peak of the market. The majority of listings are selling quickly at or above the asking price; this often reflects intense buyer competition for the same listing.
  [For the complete article and charts, please click on the blog-post title]
• San Francisco Market Stuck in High Gear July 2012 Market Update
  Huge buyer demand + the lowest interest rates in history + extremely low inventory of listings = (often ferocious) competitive bidding and increasing prices. Though this trend began in the city’s more affluent areas, it has now spread to virtually every neighborhood, every property type and every price range. Since closed sales activity follows the time of offer acceptance by 4 to 8 weeks, the appreciation in home values has not yet shown up in the statistics for certain neighborhoods. We believe it will soon.
  
  [Click on the blog-post title for the full report with charts.]
• San Francisco Rent vs Buy: 2BR Rental vs Purchase August 2012: LA Times article regarding the changing rent vs. buy equation, "For Renters, buying a home pays off after three years average:" ""Real estate website Zillow has a provocative data point for every renter thinking about buying these days: That move pays off after just three years on average nationwide."
  
  We've performed our own rent vs. buy calculation comparing the cost of buying a San Francisco 2-bedroom condo at the current average sales price (for the first 4 months of 2012) of $795,000 – adjusting for tax deductions and principal pay-down of the mortgage – with the cost of renting an SF 2-bedroom apartment at the current average asking rent of $3575/month (per Rentbits.com). Assumptions: 20% down-payment; 30-year fixed-rate loan at an APR of 4.25%; property taxes at current rate; ongoing insurance and ... [Click on the blog post title for the full report.]
• The Basis Point Financial Markets Analysis The Basis Point is a mortgage and housing blog for consumers run by Julian Hebron, a mortgage banker in San Francisco serving retail borrowers, realtors, developers, and financial advisors. He provides a wealth of information and analysis regarding real estate, mortgage and financial market conditions and trends -- local, national and international -- that we believe you will find interesting and useful.
  
  [Please click on blog post title to go to the complete article.]
• The Value of Parking in San Francisco June 21, 2012
  Years ago, an appraiser told me that he typically figures the first parking space to be worth about 10% of the total purchase price in the sale of a home. Using two years of sales for San Francisco District 5 2-BR condos and 3-BR houses, I found the following effects on value and days on market. Be aware that there might be other factors pertinent to the differences in value besides the parking space: condos and houses without parking tend to be older and perhaps more likely to be un-renovated; if three units have 2 parking spaces, the least attractive unit will often be left without parking, and so on. Still there’s no doubt the lack of parking has a significant impact on demand and value. [Please click on blog-post title for complete report and charts]
• 1st Qtr 2012 San Francisco Real Estate Update Several times in the past 25-odd years, the San Francisco real estate market has turned up or down quickly and dramatically: in the mid-eighties – up; early nineties – down; 1996 – up (and up and up, except for the dotcom hiccup); 2008 – way down; and now, we believe we are seeing another big, dramatic recovery in our homes market.
  
  By virtually every statistical measure of supply and demand, the city’s market is experiencing major acceleration. Multiple-offer situations have hit levels not seen in years and this is putting strong upward pressure on values in many of San Francisco’s neighborhoods. The more affluent areas of the city – never much impacted by distress sales and now highly sought after by buyers – are leading the recovery. [Click on the blog post title for the full report.]
• 2012: An Accelerating Real Estate Market in SF In January, we suggested that the San Francisco real estate market turned a corner in 2011, and indeed that we might be at a point similar to 1996, when the market began to accelerate after the 4-5 years of down market in the early nineties. (See the Case-Shiller chart below.) Consumer confidence, buyer demand and general economic conditions in the city improved markedly last year, and we also experienced surging high-tech employment and wealth (which looks likely to continue), skyrocketing rents, climbing stock market values and the lowest interest rates in history. [Click on the blog post title for the full report.]
  
  
• Is the SF Market Easing a Little? October 2012 Market Update
  September brought a burst of new inventory that helped satisfy some of the fierce buyer demand for San Francisco homes. Anecdotally, word on the street is that the market may have calmed down a little after Labor Day: not every listing is selling immediately amid high numbers of competing offers -- though this may simply reflect the temporary increase in new listings, or sellers too hopeful in their asking prices. But it also appears that home price appreciation has been stabilizing or at least slowing in the last quarter after the big jump earlier in the year. It’s still too early for conclusions: Since most statistics are like looking in a rearview mirror, what is happening today will only become clear in coming months. [Click on blog-post title to see complete report with charts]
• Looking Back: The Google IPO Effect on Home Prices Since there is so much talk about the Facebook IPO effect on San Francisco Real Estate, it might be interesting to look back to 2004 at Google's IPO, and what happened to median sales prices in SF in the year before and the year after the magic day: And, here again, is the chart of recent trends in San Francisco median price, updated to May 15th, before today's Facebook IPO:
  
• San Francisco Home Values - A Longer-Term View In a world where market ups and downs are blared out every minute, often with great hysteria, it’s useful to pull back and look at the home market from a wider perspective. The longer time period and larger number of sales make statistics more reliable and less confused by normal, relatively meaningless fluctuations. The longer term also provides a valuable overview for an investment typically held for 5 to 10 years and often longer.
  
  The UCLA Anderson Home Price Forecast, which has been bearish for years, has suddenly turned bullish and is now predicting a 50% gain in California median home prices over the next 6 years. (They are not the only pundits turning optimistic.) If that turns out to be true – of course, studies have found that “pundit” forecasts are about as reliable as coin tosses – that would make 2011 somewhat analogous to 1995. In 1996, after a big market drop and then years of market-value doldrums, appreciation started to pick up again. And anyone who purchased in 1992-1995 soon looked like a genius, as values then doubled by 2000.
  
  
• Who is Paragon? Who is the Paragon Real Estate Group? Founded in 2004 by five of the most experienced and successful real estate managers in San Francisco, Paragon is already one of the top three or four residential brokerages in the city by unit sales volume. According to the SF Business Times, we are #1 in average sales per agent of the top 10 brokerages in the Bay Area, and per RealTrends 500, Paragon ranks #3 in average sales price and #5 in sales per agent of the 500 largest firms in the United States.