Posted by Paragon chief market analyst, Patrick Carlisle
Below are charts for a number of major, general market indicators for the San Francisco residential real estate market that update in real time, as reported to MLS. For more detailed analyses of San Francisco or North Bay market dynamics, please use the links in the upper left corner of this page to access specific reports.
Charts reflecting median sales prices, average dollar per square foot, days on market, and sales price to list price percentages are calculated to reflect 3-month rolling averages
for each month delineated. Charts reflecting inventory
statistics, such as Months Supply of Inventory, New Listings Coming on Market, Pending Listings and Sold Listings are calculated by single month data
. The line diagram charts often give glimpses into how seasonality can affect the market dynamics, especially pertaining to inventory.
Median Sales Prices
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales
occurred for more and half for less. It typically conceals a large variety of
different prices in the underlying individual sales, and can also be affected
by other factors besides changes in fair market value, such as seasonality and large
changes in the distressed, luxury-home or new-construction segments of the
market. Short-term fluctuations are much less meaningful than longer-term
Average Dollar per Square Foot Values
This statistic is based upon interior living space and doesn’t
include garages, basements, decks, patios or rooms built without permit. Typically, square footage figures come from
appraisals or tax records, but square footage can be measured in different ways
and the figures can be unreliable. Also, a fair percentage of listings don’t even
report square footage so the statistic is only based on those sales that do. These
values should be considered very general statistical approximations.
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)
MSI measures how long it would take to sell the existing
inventory of listings for sale on the last day of the month per the past 12 months of accepted-offer activity. Typically,
under 3 months of inventory is considered a seller’s market; 2 months or less
signify an extreme seller’s market.
Median Number of Days on Market
prior to Acceptance of Offer (DOM)
Under 30 days is considered a fast moving market. Below 20
days reflects extremely high buyer demand for new listings. This figure would
be even lower except that many San Francisco agents prefer to show their
listings for 10 to 14 days before the seller even reviews offers, so as to
fully expose the home to as many prospective buyers as possible and thus maximize
the potential of a bidding war.
Number of New Listings Coming on Market, Total Active Listing Inventory,
Listing Accepting Offers (Pending) & Listings Sold by Month
New listings are hugely impacted by seasonality, with a rush of new listings typically coming on market in early spring and early autumn, then dropping during the summer and precipitously during the winter holidays.
The total number of active listings on the market at any given time is
determined by 3 big factors: seasonality, buyer demand and the motivation of prospective
sellers to sell. In the 5-year line chart, one can see the large decline in
listings available to purchase at any given time over the past 5 years. The below 2 charts measure the number of active listings on the market at the end of the month specified.
Listings Accepting Offers (Pending), by Month
Closed Sales by Month
Sales typically follow offer negotiation by 3 to 6 weeks.
Percentage of Listings Selling over Final List Price
Large percentages of sales in which the price is bid
up above asking price usually signifies spirited buyer competition for new
listings. Before 2012, this percentage typically ran between 20% and 40%
of sales. It has climbed to new
heights in recent years. This is another statistic that is affected by
seasonality: Higher percentages in spring and autumn, lower during the summer
and winter holidays.
Median Percentage of Sales Price to Final List Price
This statistic is becoming somewhat distorted because many SF listing
agents are underpricing, and sometimes egregiously underpricing, their listings.
Still, sales prices consistently well above asking prices are a classic sign of bidding wars and
a very hot real estate market.
: Confusingly, different analytical systems sometimes define (or calculate) certain common statistics - such as Months Supply of Inventory, Days on Market, and Dollar per Square Foot values - in different
ways, which, of course, will yield different results. Which is why looking at trends
is typically the best use of general statistics. The charts above were generated using the Infosparks system (we also sometimes use Broker Metrics or MLS generated metrics), and the parameters for its calculations can be found here: Infosparks statistical
Other reports you might find interesting:
SF Luxury Home
30+ Years of San
Francisco Real Estate Cycles
San Francisco Neighborhood
10 Factors behind the San Francisco Real
Bay Area Apartment
Link to San
Francisco Neighborhood Map
All data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. These statistics were generated automatically by Infosparks using San Francisco MLS data. Sales unreported to MLS - such as many new-development condo sales - will not be reflected in these charts. Longer term trends are typically much more meaningful that short-term fluctuations (which are relatively common).
© 2016 Paragon Real Estate Group