Tri-Valley Home Prices & Market Conditions



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Tri-Valley Real Estate Market Report

Median home price appreciation, overbidding asking prices,
house values by city, and media reports of impending doom

Report by Paragon Real Estate for
Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore & Castro Valley

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We have just published our new Bay Area report: Updated Survey of Bay Area Real Estate Markets

Consumer confidence is still soaring, and buyers continue to push aside concerns regarding recent financial market volatility, federal tax law changes affecting Bay Area homeowners, and interest rate increases, to fuel strong markets throughout the Tri-Valley area.

In Q1 2018, the Tri-Valley median house sales price of $939,500 was 7.3% above the Q1 2017 price of $875,000, and the tiniest bit above the previous peak reached in Q2 2017 ($937,000). Prices usually increase from Q1 to Q2 as the spring selling season really gets going, so it will be interesting to see what happens next in our market.


Median House Prices by Quarter

Tri-Valley Median home sales price


Median House Prices by Year
since 1996

Tri-Valley home price historical


Home Values by City

Sales Reported to MLS, 10/1/17 – 4/10/18


Below is a glance at recent house median prices and average dollar per square foot values broken out for Tri-Valley and selected Diablo Valley cities, for sales reported to MLS in the last 6 months or so - basically since autumn sales began to close in early October.


Median House Sales Prices

Tri-Valley median house price by city


Average Dollar per Square Foot Values

Tri-Valley Average Dollar per Square Foot

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Market Dynamics

Sales Price to List Price Percentage

Higher percentages of sales price over list price and lower days-on-market figures signify more heated buyer competition for new listings coming on market. By both these metrics, 2018 has gotten off to a stronger start than in recent years.


Tri-Valley Sale Prices to List Prices


Average Days on Market

Tri-Valley Average Days on Market

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The Facts Regarding Bay Area
Migration, Population & Employment Trends


Alarmist Media Reports Forecast Doom for Bay Area

Many semi-hysterical articles were published in March regarding Bay Area residents fleeing in droves, that more people are leaving than arriving, that Silicon Valley is over, and this may spell disaster for the region. Wow, that sounds very bad - but is not true: Though the rate of growth has considerably slowed from the torrid pace of recent years - which is probably a good thing, since the Bay Area is now bursting at the seams - more people are still arriving than leaving, and population and employment numbers are still increasing. Our report, Will the Last Person Leaving the Bay Area Please Turn Off the Lights covers this topic in much greater detail.

Here are 3 of the charts from our full article, based on recent U.S. census and CA state employment data.


Net domestic and foreign migration in and out of the SF Metro Area,
natural population increases and annual net population growth

SF Bay Area Migration-Population-Jobs


The San Francisco Bay Area population continued to increase in 2017,
though slowing from the feverish growth rates of previous years.




The Bay Area continues to be a high-paying-job-creating machine,
though hiring intermittently speeds up or slows down.



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Mortgage Interest Rates

Interest rate changes are one of many factors we reviewed in a recent report Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Markets. It may be that fears of impending rate increases are helping to fuel the strong buyer demand we are seeing so far in 2018.



30 Year Short Term Interest Rates

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Our report on the ups and downs in the market over recent decades: SF Bay Area Real Estate Cycles

Additional reports can be found here: Paragon Main Reports Page


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Very Strong Market Dynamics
Continue into Early 2018

For Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore & Castro Valley

March 2018 Update

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Year-over-Year Comparisons
Median Prices & Price per Square Foot

Pleasanton year over year home price appreciation


The chart above illustrates year-over-year changes in home values using the 3-month period of December, January and February sales: 6.4% appreciation in median sales prices and 11.5% for dollar per square foot values since last year. The usual reason why median price and price per square foot appreciation rates diverge like this is because the average size of homes sold during the 2 periods changed, and this is what occurred from last year to this year: Average house size dropped a little over 9%. All thing being equal, smaller homes typically sell for lower prices, but higher per square foot values. The actual, overall home-value appreciation rate is probably somewhere between the two.

It is still very early in the year to come to definitive conclusions, but so far in 2018, the entire Bay Area appears to have shrugged off concerns regarding increasing prices, rising interest rates, stock market volatility and federal tax law changes. We will know more once sales data from the spring selling season starts coming in.


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Median Home Value Appreciation Trends
since 2012 by City

The next 2 charts are snapshots of annual appreciation since 2012 in the 4 Tri-Valley cities.






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Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)
& Average Days on Market (DOM)


As measured by 2 classic measures of supply and demand, the Tri-Valley market in recent months has certainly not softened in comparison to the last 2 years, but, indeed, has become even hotter. Generally speaking, this is playing out around the Bay Area, but more dramatically in the Tri-Valley area. MSI and Days on Market figures in the Tri-Valley cities are among the lowest in the Bay Area (and the nation), and signify very high demand in comparison to the supply of listings available to purchase.






New Listings Coming on Market
& Listings Accepting Offers


This next chart graphs the intense seasonality of the Tri-Valley market: We are just beginning what is typically the biggest selling season of the year.




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Tri-Valley Luxury Home Market




The average Tri-Valley home selling between $1.25m and $1.499m was a 4 bedroom, 3 bath, 3125 square foot house. Moving to $2m and above, the average home was a 5 bedroom, 4.5 bath, 5070 square foot house. As always, there are significant differences in prices based on specific location, condition, lot size and other factors.


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Rising Mortgage Interest Rates

Short-Term Trends




Long-Term Trends

Long-Term Mortgage Interest Rate Trends

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More reading for those interested:

Paragon Main Reports Page

Diablo Valley & Lamorinda Market Report

Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Markets

Survey of Bay Area Real Estate Markets

January 2018 Report

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Another strong year in real estate, with significant median home price appreciation throughout the Bay Area. The Tri-Valley market in particular was very hot.

Pleasanton Dublin Livermore House Sales Price Trends

Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore, CA, National Home Price Trends

Additional chart: Bay Area Median Home Price Trends by County

Link to our report on Bay Area real estate cycles


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2017 saw real estate markets surge and financial markets soar. After some cooling from mid-2015 to mid-2016, the Bay Area high-tech economy surged back into high speed, with companies leasing enormous spaces in newly built office buildings - which they will presumably fill with new hires. Unemployment rates have flirted with historic lows, and 2018 may see some major local IPOs, which could create great quantities of new wealth. The Bay Area still has probably the most dynamic, innovation-fueled economy in the world and indisputably remains among the great metro areas on the planet - but there are social, economic, political and environmental challenges looming as well.

Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Markets

Congress delivered an unpleasant holiday present to many Bay Area residents in the form of federal tax law changes limiting the deductibility of mortgage interest and state and local taxes. The effect of these changes make living in an already high cost-of-living area more costly for many residents, and also reduce some of the financial incentives of homeownership, especially for more expensive homes. Predictions on the effect of these tax changes on local housing markets and the business environment range from one extreme (economic devastation) to the other (shrug), and the state legislature is currently working on bills that might blunt the negative financial impacts. It is too early to guess how it will all play out.

Most of the charts below are self-explanatory, so we have kept the text to a minimum.


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Tri-Valley Average Days on Market

SF Bay Area Months Supply of Inventory by Year

California Migration Trends in 2016

Link to our analysis of domestic and foreign migration trends

Link to our survey of Bay Area demographics


S&P 500 Index by Year

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Tri-Valley Home Prices by City
& Bedroom Count




Pleasanton Dublin sales by price range

Tri-Valley Home Sales by Price Segment

Pleasanton Castro Valley condo prices

Pleasanton Dublin Livermore 3-4 bedroom house prices

Pleasanton Livermore Castro Valley 5-bedroom home prices

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Link to our Diablo Valley and Lamorinda market report

All our Bay Area real estate analyses are here: Paragon Market Reports

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It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. Late-reported MLS activity may change certain statistics to some small degree.

© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group


Home Price Trends, Average Dollar per Square Foot Values, Luxury Home Sales,
Sales Breakdowns by Price Segment & Bedroom Count, Supply & Demand Analytics

November 2017 Report

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In some of the charts below, we have included data for Diablo Valley cities to provide further context for area market prices and dynamics.

Median Home Price Appreciation Trends


City Home Price Trends in Tri-Valley and Diablo Valley


Average Dollar per Square Foot Values

Tri-Valley and Diablo Valley Average Dollar per Square Foot Values

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Market Overviews

Tri-Valley and Diablo Valley Unit Home Sales by City

Tri-Valley Home Sales by Bedroom Count

Pleasanton Dublin Livermore Tri-Valley Sales by Price Range - Pie Chart

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Luxury Home Sales

Pleasanton Dublin Castro Valley Luxury Home Sales by Year

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Market Statistics by City

Median House Price Appreciation Rates since 2011

Tri-Valley Diablo Valley Home Price Appreciation Rates


Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers

The higher the percentage the hotter the demand.

Tri-Valley-Diablo Valley Absorption Rate by City


Average Days on Market

Generally speaking, the fewer the days on market, the stronger the demand.

Pleasanton Dublin Livermore Castro Valley Average Days on Market

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Seasonality & Real Estate Market

Advantages to buying during the mid-November to mid-January slowdown

Just before Thanksgiving the market begins to rapidly subside until starting to revive about 7-8 weeks later. Many buyers simply check out during this period, but there are good reasons for staying engaged - mainly the possibility of getting a much better deal. Starting in late summer, sellers begin reducing prices in large numbers as they try to capture the attention of buyers before the big slowdown: Buyers should treat these as brand new listings and take a new look. Competition between buyers drops dramatically during the mid-winter period, and since competitive bidding is the biggest single factor behind higher prices, its decline can mean significant savings. Fewer buyers also mean that sellers are often more willing to negotiate: Throw offers in at whatever price you feel is right and see where they go. It is true that the number of new listings coming on markets plunges, but there are still hundreds of listings to consider for those willing to stay in the game.


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Annual Home Price Appreciation Trends by City

Pleasanton Median Home Prices by Year

Dublin Median Home Prices by Year

Castro Valley Median Home Prices by Year

Livermore Median Home Prices by Year

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Mortgage Interest Rates

Interest rates are somewhat above their all-time lows, but still very, very low by historic standards. This is of enormous importance to buyers financing their home purchases.


Short-Term Rate Trends

Short-Term Mortgage Interest Rate Trends


Long-Term Trends

Long-Term Mortgage Interest Rate Trends


As the recent terrible fires have reminded us, disasters arrive suddenly and with little warning. We have three recommendations: firstly, contact your insurance agent to make sure your policy is updated to cover the full, current value of your home and possessions. Secondly, this website contains useful information on being prepared and having a plan in the event disaster strikes: Disaster Preparation Guide & Resources. Thirdly, many communities now have early-warning communications programs that can automatically email, text or call you in the event of a disaster, and then provide useful ongoing updates on the situation. Check with your county and city governments to see what is available, and sign up ASAP.

Please let us know if you have questions or we can be of assistance in any other way.

All our Bay Area real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports

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It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

© 2017 Paragon Real Estate Group


Tri-Valley Real Estate Report

The Autumn Market Begins

September 2017 Report for Pleasanton,
Dublin, Castro Valley & Livermore

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Spring and summer are two most active selling seasons in the Tri-Valley, but a substantial amount of business will still occur before the market starts to enter its winter holiday hibernation in mid-November. 2017 year to date has seen continued and very significant home price appreciation throughout the Tri-Valley area. One big factor is simply its relative affordability when compared to many other communities of similar quality in the Bay Area. Of course, Tri-Valley is also simply a wonderful place to live and still be within driving distance of Silicon Valley.


Tri-Valley, Diablo Valley, San Francisco, California
& United States Median Home Price Trends


Tri-Valley, California, US Home Price Trends

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Tri-Valley Median House Price Appreciation
2012 to 2017 YTD, by City

Median sales prices and average dollar per square foot values are not perfect indicators of appreciation for specific homes: They can be and often are affected by factors other than changes in fair market value, and shorter-term anomalies are not uncommon. What is certainly true is that all four Tri-Valley cities covered in this report have seen substantial appreciation since the market recovery began 6 years ago.




Tri-Valley Median Home Price Appreciation

Tri-Valley Average Dollar per Square Foot Appreciation


Year-over Year Condo Price Appreciations

Tri-Valley Condo Price Appreciation

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Tri-Valley Median Home Prices
by City & Bedroom Count


Pleasanton-Livermore Median 3-4 Bedroom House Prices

Pleasanton-Dublin Median 5-Bedroom House Prices

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Residential Supply & Demand Statistics
Active Listings, Listings Accepting Offers & Sales by Month

This next chart illustrates the ebb and flow of listing and sales activity by season. September-October typically sees the last significant amount of activity before the mid-winter doldrums and then the market picking up again in early spring. One can also see that while the number of listings on the market this past spring and summer declined from the previous year, the number of sales actually ticked up a little, a clear indication of the market getting even hotter in 2017.



Tri-Valley Residential Listings and Sales

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Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)

The lower the months supply of inventory, the higher the demand as compared to the supply of homes available to purchase, i.e. a lower MSI equals a hotter market. The entire Bay Area has been experiencing very, very low MSI figures - under 2 months of inventory - since the intensely hot spring market began, but the Tri-Valley area has been seeing extreme lows - under 1.5 months and even under 1 month of inventory.


Tri-Valley and Bay Area Months Supply of Inventory


Sales Price to Original Price Percentages
Overbidding Asking Prices

Generally speaking, the higher the demand, the greater the competitive bidding between buyers, which is what leads to sales prices going over asking prices. Almost all the SP-OP percentages in the greater Tri-Valley, Diablo Valley and Lamorinda area during the Q2 market were high by historical standards.


Tri-Valley and Diablo Valley Overbidding List Prices

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National Housing Affordability

This next chart illustrates home affordability for selected metro areas across the country as calculated by the National Association of Realtors. The 7 inner Bay Area counties, constituting the first 2 metro areas charted, are the least affordable in the nation.


U.S. Metro Area Housing Affordability


Bay Area House Markets

Since San Francisco is considered the big city in the Bay Area (though San Jose is actually larger), it seems counter-intuitive that its house market is one of the smallest (though it has by far the largest and most expensive condo market in the Bay Area). The Tri-Valley house market is significantly larger than that in San Francisco, which plays a role in the market dynamics and prices in both places.



Tri-Valley and Bay Area House Markets

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Mortgage Interest Rates

Since the November 2016 election, interest rates have seen a wild ride, first up and then down. As of early September, rates hit their lowest point so far in 2017, a significant financial advantage for buyers.



Mortgage Interest Rate Trends


Please let us know if you have questions or we can be of assistance in any other way.

All our many Bay Area real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports

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It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

© 2017 Paragon Real Estate Group


Another Crazy Hot Spring Market
in Tri-Valley Real Estate

As Buyers Compete for Inadequate Supply of Home Listings,
Median House Sales Prices Hit New Highs Everywhere

Market Report for Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore & Castro Valley
June 2017, Paragon Real Estate

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Median House Sales Price Appreciation since 2000

All House Sales (Not Detached Houses Only)









Looking at year-to-date 2017 median sales prices, Pleasanton, Dublin and Livermore have all seen appreciation rates of approximately 7% over their 2016 median prices, while Castro Valley appreciated almost 10%. All 4 cities are in the sweet spot for housing affordability compared to other comparable communities in the Bay Area.


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Comparing Us and Them

Bay Area & National Appreciation Trends since 1987
through March 2017

The numbers on the Case-Shiller chart below all relate to a home price of 100 in January 2000: 50 denotes a home price 50% below then; 230 signifies a price 130% above January 2000.



This chart compares the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for the 5-county San Francisco Metro Area in the blue line and the United States market in the green line. It goes through March 2017, which is the last report Case-Shiller has released as of early June, so it will not reflect the surge of appreciation in April and May.

Since 2012, according to these indices, the difference between overall home price appreciation rates, Bay Area and U.S. is 88% vs. 39%. The Tri-Valley area has not yet seen the total recovery appreciation rates that cities closer in to the heart of the high-tech boom have, which may mean it will continue appreciating when other areas begin to cool. It is interesting to see the other points where there were significant divergences between national and Bay Area trend lines: After the 1989 earthquake, during the dotcom bubble rise and collapse, and the inflation of the subprime financing bubble.


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Tri-Valley Luxury Home Market

12 Months Sales by City



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Supply & Demand Dynamics

These analyses below not only give insights into the heat of the market over the past 2 years and this past spring in particular, but also illustrate how the market ebbs and flows with the seasons. The spring selling season is typically busiest, with the highest intensity of buyer demand, and the worst mismatch between supply and demand. Mid-winter holidays mark the nadir of the market all around the Bay Area.

The first 3 charts below track numbers of new listings, total active listings on the market, and listings accepting offers by month. In sheer numbers, Livermore is the biggest market in the area, followed by Pleasanton and Dublin, which are very similar in their levels of activity, and then Castro Valley as the smaller market.

New Listings Coming on Market




Total Active Listing Inventory




Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)




Overbidding, Months Supply of Inventory
& Average Days on Market


These next analyses are classic statistical measurements of the heat of the market, and they all illustrate the feverish markets currently prevailing in the Tri-Valley area. The search for affordable housing, or comparative affordability by Bay Area standards, is currently a huge driver of demand in the Tri-Valley area.


Overbidding List Prices

Competitive bidding between buyers, leading to sales prices over original list prices, almost always peaks during the spring selling season. This is a classic dynamic of very high demand and very low supply. Castro Valley, in particular, saw overbidding push sales prices, on average, 3 to 4% over asking prices in the past couple months.





Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)

Over the past 2 years, all of the MSI figures found in the area would be considered low, and in some months, such as in this past spring, they would be considered fantastically low.





Average Days on Market

The Tri-Valley area has seen some of the lowest average days-on-market figures in the nation this past spring: Buyers are jumping on new listings coming on market.





All our Bay Area real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports


The Tri-Valley Real Estate Market Report
For Castro Valley, Dublin, Pleasanton & Livermore

Early Spring 2017 – Paragon Real Estate

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Selected Angles on Market Dynamics

The Tri-Valley market has just entered its most active period for new listings coming on market, and for listings accepting offers, which typically runs through early June before beginning to markedly slow.




As illustrated in the 2 charts below illustrating annual trends, the hotter the market, the faster listings sell, and the more competitive bidding that occurs for listings. Since the Tri-Valley market emerged from the recession, it is not unusual for the most appealing and well-priced new listings to sell very quickly for over asking price. Note that it is not unusual for higher priced homes to take somewhat longer to sell.






However, this chart of market conditions in the 2nd half of 2016, illustrates the big difference that correct pricing can make in the reactions from the buyer community. Many listings sell quickly for over asking price, but those listings perceived as overpriced typically require 1 or more price reductions, and take much longer to go into contract. Or the listing expires or withdrawn from the market without a sale taking place.





You might also find our recent report on Bay Area markets interesting: A Survey of Real Estate Markets around the Bay Area

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It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis, which we are happy to provide upon request. Please call or email if you have any questions or need assistance in any way.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

© 2017 Paragon Real Estate Group