San Francisco Real Estate Market Report



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Market Conditions, Trends & Home Prices in San Francisco

A Selection of Monthly Reports

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We have just published our new Bay Area report: Updated Survey of Bay Area Real Estate Markets


On a 3-month-rolling basis, in May 2018, the San Francisco median house sales price was $1,650,000, and the median condo sales price was $1,250,000 (3-month rolling sales through 5/31/18, reported by June 4). Those reflect year-over-year increases of 17% and 9.5% respectively. Average dollar per square foot values were $1019 for houses and $1153 for condos.


San Francisco Median Home Sales Prices

San Francisco Average Dollar per Square Foot

San Francisco Home Sales Breakdown


City-Wide Market Analyses
Auto-Updating Interactive Charts

CLICK ON THE REFRESH BUTTON IF THE CHARTS BELOW ARE NOT LOADING QUICKLY.

SF Median MONTHLY Sales Prices & Avg. $/Sq.Ft. Values

Each data point reflects the single month of sales
Roll cursor over chart lines to pull up monthly data points

Note: Monthly statistics are prone to relatively insignificant short-term fluctuations.






Selected Year-over-Year Comparisons
San Francisco House & Condo Markets
3-Month Rolling Statistics

Each data point reflects 3-months-rolling market activity of the year specified, i.e. the April statistics reflect February, March & April sales as reported to MLS. These are auto-updating charts, changing with the passing of each month, but will always reflect the most recent 3-month period, comparing it to the same period in the previous 2 years.

Gold columns reflect SF house sales; Purple columns reflect SF condo sales


Median Sales Prices




Average Dollar per Square Foot on Sale




Sales Volume: Rolling 3-Month Period




Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)

The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared
to the supply of listings available to purchase




Average Days on Market



Median Percentage of Sales Price to Final List Price - Overbidding



Active Listings at End of Month
Trends since 2005



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The Hottest Neighborhood Real Estate
Markets in San Francisco

All parts of the city have experienced staggering rates of
appreciation since 2011, but some neighborhoods stand out
(for a variety of different reasons)

2000 to present, different city districts experienced bubbles,
crashes and recoveries of vastly varying magnitudes

Paragon May 2018 Report

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After the neighborhood appreciation analyses below, there are many more updated city-wide market-trend charts.

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Highest Median House Price Appreciation Rates:
Compound Annual Appreciation Percentages, 2011 – 2017


The neighborhoods and districts circled on the map below have seen compound annual appreciation rates of 12% or more over the past 6 years. As a point of comparison, the national rate over that period was about 7%, and the CPI inflation rate about 1.5%. As illustrated in the table below the map, the highest rate in San Francisco over the period was above 18%.

If we calculate the return on cash investment for someone who purchased with a 20% down payment (instead of paying all cash), adjusting for closing costs (estimated at 2% on buy-side, 7% on sell side), the compound annual rate of return on the cash investment soars: a neighborhood on the table below that shows a 10% annual rate of home price appreciation would translate into an annual compound return on cash investment of just under 40%. The use of financing in homeownership is one of the reasons why it can often be such a good investment.


Highest San Francisco Neighborhood Appreciation


SF house compound annual appreciation rates SF Neighborhood compound annual appreciation rates

Total 6-year appreciation rates can be calculated by dividing the 2017
median house sales price by the 2011 price.


Though median home price appreciation rates throughout the city have been incredibly high by any reasonable measure, some neighborhoods have outpaced the norm. The main reason is affordability: Less expensive homes have appreciated considerably faster than more expensive homes. Also, some of the most affordable districts were hammered by foreclosure sales after the 2008 crash, which brought their sales prices down to unnatural lows by 2011 - setting the stage for dramatic recoveries. Bayview, with the most affordable houses in SF and also worst hit by the 2008-2011 distressed property crisis, has had the highest compound annual appreciation rate since that time, a staggering 18.3%, or a 6-year total rate of 174%. Other affordable neighborhoods running across the southern border of the city - such as Excelsior, Visitacion Valley, Sunnyside, Ingleside and Oceanview - also saw extremely high annual rates of 12% to 14% for similar reasons.

The dynamic in the Inner Mission was somewhat different: Its 14.7% compound annual rate of appreciation - a total of 128% over the 6 years – was because it turned into the hottest, hippest district in the city, especially among younger high-tech workers. The gentrification which had been slowly occurring for 30 years suddenly went into overdrive to catapult prices higher.

Bernal Heights - with a 13.3% compound annual rate and 111% 6-year total - is right next to the Mission on one side and to Noe Valley on another. It was perfectly situated to take advantage of the classic overflow effect for people who wanted a similar neighborhood ambiance to Noe or Eureka Valley, but could no longer afford their much higher prices. Outer Richmond was also a standout: It has the lowest house prices in the northern third of the city. And the Sunset & Parkside district is filled with mid-price 2 and 3 bedroom houses, has a variety of attractive neighborhood commercial districts, ocean or parks on 3 sides, and easy access to highways south to the peninsula. All these factors have made it into a much sought-after location to purchase a home in recent years. The market there is insanely hot now.

The most expensive neighborhoods in the city have lower, but still very high rates of appreciation. And in dollar terms, their appreciation returns are by far the highest in the city.

CONDOS: Calculating appreciation rates for SF neighborhood condo prices is an iffier process, because so many large, new condo projects have come on market, significantly impacting inventory and sales prices, and making it much more difficult to perform apples to apples comparisons. Therefore, our calculations, above and below, are performed for the entire city instead of for separate districts. It is certainly true that, due to supply and demand issues, condos have typically appreciated at somewhat lesser rates than houses, which have become the scarce commodity in SF. There has been some variation in condo appreciation rates depending on location, supply and price segment.


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Up, Down & Up: A Longer-Term Look
at SF Home Value Changes since 2000


Bubble, Crash & Recovery
by District & Price Segment



Home value appreciation in the charts below is broken down by 4 distinct time periods: 1) 2000 to peak of bubble (2006-2008, depending on price segment); 2) peak of bubble to bottom of market (typically 2011); 3) 2012-2015, i.e. the 1st 4 years of the recovery; and 4) 2015 to present.

House appreciation is broken down into 4 broad price segments as exemplified by the markets in 4 city regions: The least expensive segment is represented by house sales in the broad swathe of southern neighborhoods running from Bayview through Portola, Excelsior, Crocker Amazon and Outer Mission (Realtor district 10). The mid-price segment is illustrated by sales in the Sunset & Parkside district (Realtor district 2). The central Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys district (district 5) is used to represent the expensive segment; and the very expensive house segment is illustrated by the northern, old-prestige neighborhoods running from Sea Cliff, Lake Street & Jordan Park through Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow and Marina to Russian, Nob & Telegraph Hills (which are the very affluent parts of 3 different Realtor districts).

These areas were used because of their quantity of sales and the relative homogeneity of values within them. For condos, appreciation rates were calculated on the entire SF condo market. The calculations below were made by averaging both median sales price and average dollar per square foot appreciation rates. Present values are based on sales occurring in Q4 2017 and Q1 2018.


2000 to Peak of Bubble,
Crash to Bottom of Market


Less expensive homes saw the biggest bubbles (2000 to 2006-2008) and crashes (2008-2011), mostly due to the predatory lending/ subprime financing crisis. This was a phenomenon across Bay Area markets: The least expensive housing segments of some counties saw stupendous bubbles and crashes. (Note that different price segments peaked in different years from 2006 to mid-2008.)


SF Appreciation 2000 to Top of Bubble


Bottom of Market to 2015,
2015 to Present


The first 4 years of the recovery which began in 2012 saw high home-price appreciation rates across the city. In 2015, the market shifted - there was considerable financial market volatility in late 2015 and the first half of 2016, a precipitous drop in IPO activity, and the high-tech boom cooled temporarily - and appreciation rates diverged, with less expensive homes significantly outpacing more expensive neighborhoods as buyers desperately searched for homes they could still afford.


SF Appreciation since 2015


Overall Dollar & Percentage Appreciation
2000 to Present


By percentage appreciation since 2000, Sunset/Parkside ranks first. By actual dollar appreciation, the most expensive homes increased the most, typically by well into seven figures.


SF Home Price Appreciation since 2000


San Francisco Condo Appreciation
2000 to Present, All Districts


Generally speaking, the SF condo market has not seen appreciation rates as high as for houses. Mostly, this has to do with increasing supply due to the boom in new condo construction, but it was also affected by factors in 2015-2016 already described above.


SF condo price appreciation since 2000


SF Home Sales - Percentage Selling over List Price

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San Francisco New-Housing Trends

New construction, projects authorized, and affordable housing figures
based on SF Planning Department data recently released for 2017

San Francisco New Home Construction by Year

San Francisco New Housing Projects Authorized

San Francisco Affordable Housing Construction

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Yet Another New Peak in SF Median House Price
as It Exceeds $1,600,000 in Q1 2018

Median sales price appreciation, neighborhood home price tables;
media reports of impending doom; luxury home sales; interest rates;
Bay Area rent trends; and the new-home construction pipeline

April 2018 Report

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Consumer confidence is still soaring, and buyers continue to push aside concerns about recent financial market volatility, federal tax law changes affecting Bay Area homeowners, and interest rate increases, to fuel heated neighborhood markets throughout San Francisco.

The quarterly median house sales price in San Francisco jumped to a bit over $1,600,000 in Q1 2018 (sales reported by 4/7/18), a new all-time high, $100,000 above the previous high recently hit in Q4 2017. This is almost a 24% jump over the Q1 2017 median price of $1,300,000. For the past 6 years, prices have increased from Q1 to Q2, so it will be interesting to see what occurs in the current quarter just begun. The median CONDO sales price was $1,176,500 in Q1 2018, about a 4.5% increase over the Q1 2017 price of $1,125,000, and a tad below the peak hit in Q4 2017.

Houses have become the scarce commodity in San Francisco: Few new houses are built in the city anymore, and house owners are selling less frequently than ever. Neighborhoods with house prices under $1.5m to $2m are, in particular, experiencing frenzied buyer demand. Median condo sales prices continue to increase, but at slower rates due to the significant quantities of new-construction condos coming on market.


Median Sales Price Changes by Quarter
since 2012

Median sales prices often fluctuate by quarter or season.
Longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes.

San Francisco median house and condo prices by quarter


Longer-Term Median Sales Price Changes
since 2005, 12-Month Rolling Figures

12-month-rolling median sales price figures will always be behind the curve during periods of rapid appreciation, but are excellent for illustrating long-term trends, as they reduce the effects of large, anomalous or seasonal fluctuations.


Long-term SF house and condo price appreciation


Long-Term Home Price Trends
Bay Area vs. National Appreciation since 1987
per CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index

The Case-Shiller Index does not use median sales prices to measure appreciation, but instead employs its own algorithm. This chart compares the national home price appreciation trend with that for high-price-tier houses in the 5-county SF Metro Area. The high price tier applies best to most of the markets in San Francisco, Central-Southern Marin, San Mateo, and Diablo Valley & Lamorinda.

In this chart, home prices in January 2000 are designated at a value of 100, thus the reading of 248 in December 2017 signifies a price that has appreciated 148% in the 18 years since then. Notice how similar the national and Bay Area trend lines are, with appreciable variations occurring after the 1989 earthquake, during the dotcom bubble and crash, and during the most recent Bay Area high tech boom.

Case-Shiller SF Bay Area vs National Home Price Appreciation



As always, market dynamics often vary significantly by specific location, property type and price segment, and median prices are often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value (such as fluctuations in luxury home and new construction sales, and in the average size of homes sold). Late reported sales may affect the median sales prices illustrated in the quarterly chart, though typically only to a minor degree.


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Overbidding Asking Prices in San Francisco
Sales Price to List Price % by Property Type, 12-Month Rolling Figures

Overbidding reflects buyer competition for new listings. It is a pure supply and demand issue, and this chart illustrates the respective heat of house, condo and TIC markets in the city. However it should be noted that some agents have adopted a strategy of underpricing their listings, which will artificially increase overbidding percentages.

San Francisco Real Estate Overbidding

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San Francisco Median Sales Prices by Neighborhood

Reflecting Sales Reported to MLS 10/1/17 – 4/5/18
Neighborhoods with a Minimum of 12 Sales in Period
(except Presidio Heights)

Below is a glance at recent house and condo median sales prices broken out by neighborhood for sales reported to MLS in the last 6 months or so - basically since autumn sales began to close. There are many SF neighborhoods that did not have at least 12 sales during the period and these were not included, because the fewer the sales, the less reliable the statistical analysis. The only exception was Presidio Heights: It holds the title for both highest house and condo median sales prices, so we included it even though it had only 11 sales of each property type.

Note: In recent years, the Pacific Heights median house sales price has typically been running close to $6m, far above its price in the table below. But median prices can often fluctuate dramatically in the most expensive neighborhoods: This is due to the relatively small number of sales and the enormous range in individual sales prices. Absent some definitive market event, sudden, abnormal spikes up or down in neighborhood values should always be taken with a grain of salt until confirmed over the longer term.

There are 10 Realtor districts and 70-odd neighborhoods in the city, and here is a link to a detailed San Francisco Neighborhood Map.


SF Neighborhood House Prices

SF Neighborhood Condo Prices


If you would like information on a neighborhood not included here, please let us know.

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The Facts Regarding Bay Area
Migration, Population & Employment Trends


Alarmist Media Reports Forecast Doom for Bay Area

Many semi-hysterical articles were published in March regarding Bay Area residents fleeing "in droves", that "more people are leaving than arriving", that "Silicon Valley is over", and this may "spell disaster" for the region. Wow, that sounds very bad - but is not true: Though the rate of growth has considerably slowed from the torrid pace of recent years - which is probably a good thing, since the Bay Area is now bursting at the seams - more people are still arriving than leaving, and population and employment numbers are still increasing. Our report, Will the Last Person Leaving the Bay Area Please Turn Off the Lights covers this topic in much greater detail.

Here are 3 of the charts from our full article, based on recent U.S. census and CA state employment data.


Net domestic and foreign migration in and out of the SF Metro Area,
natural population increases and annual net population growth

SF Bay Area Migration-Population-Jobs


San Francisco & Bay Area populations continued to increase in 2017,
though slowing from the feverish growth rates of previous years.




The Bay Area continues to be a high-paying-job-creating machine,
though hiring intermittently speeds up or slows down.




Again, our full report is here: Will the Last Person Leaving the Bay Area Please Turn Off the Lights


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San Francisco Luxury Home Sales Trends
since 2005

San Francisco Luxury Home Sales Trends


More analyses: Paragon Luxury Market Report


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SF New Housing Construction Pipeline


There are approximately 65,000 housing units in the SF Planning Department pipeline, which includes condos, apartments, and affordable and social project housing in various states of plan submittal, review, approval, permit issuance and construction. The construction of new rental units continues to outpace new-condo construction in San Francisco, an interesting shift which just began a couple years ago. More projects continue to enter the pipeline, but some of the really big projects - such as Treasure Island, Candlestick and the Schlage Lock Factory - do not seem to be making much headway toward breaking ground.


San Francisco Housing Pipeline

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Mortgage Interest Rates

Interest rate changes are one of many factors we reviewed in a recent report Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Markets. It may be that fears of impending rate increases are helping to fuel the strong buyer demand we are seeing so far in 2018.



30 Year Short Term Interest Rates

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MEDIAN List Rents by County
Short-Term Trends since 2011

Though they have dropped since peaking in 2015, San Francisco rents remain the highest in the country.


Bay Area Rents by County

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Additional reading for those interested:

Bay Area Real Estate Cycles - Condensed Article

Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Markets

Residential Income Property Market Report

Paragon Main Reports Page


Please let us know if you have questions or we can be of assistance in any other way.
Information on neighborhoods not included in this report is readily available.

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No Let-Up in Demand So Far in 2018

March 2018 Update

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So far in 2018, the market seems to have brushed aside any concerns about increasing home prices, rising interest rates, stock market volatility, and new federal tax law changes. It is still very early in the year to come to definitive conclusions about where the year is going, but right now, in most market segments, buyer demand is competing ferociously for a limited supply of listings. Indeed, by some standard statistical measures of supply and demand - days on market, months supply of inventory, absorption rate - the SF market is about as heated now as it has been at any time in the past 10 years. This is especially true in the more affordable home segments, and particularly for house listings. The situation is somewhat more complicated in the highest price ranges, especially in the luxury condo segment where supply has been rapidly increasing. Of course, whatever the property type or price segment, it all ultimately depends on the specific property, and its location, appeal, preparation, marketing and pricing.

As an example of what is going on so far in 2018, our dollar volume SF home sales here at Paragon is up 38% for January and February as compared to last year, though admittedly we are outperforming the general market, which is still up by 8% (per Broker Metrics for MLS sales).


San Francisco Median Home Price Appreciation
Year-over-Year Comparisons since 2005

San Francisco year over year median home price appreciation


San Francisco Price per Sq.Ft. Appreciation
Year-over-Year Comparisons since 2005

San Francisco Average Dollar per Square Foot Appreciation


These first two charts above compare year-over-year median and average home values for the same 3-month period, December through February, since 2005. For the past 3 years, appreciation for houses has dramatically outpaced that for condos. This is mostly a factor of supply as new-construction condos have poured onto the market, while the supply of house listings has continued to dwindle in the face of high demand.

We are not enthusiastic about monthly median price movements since they tend to bounce around without great meaningfulness due to a number of factors, and sales volumes are very low in the first 2 months of the year, but, for what it is worth, the SF median house price soared to a new high in February 2018 to $1,715,000 (100 sales across 70-odd neighborhoods, reported to MLS by 3/7/18 - late reported sales may affect this price). Monthly median condo prices have generally been jogging up and down within a relatively narrow range since 2015. Chart: Chart: SF Monthly House & Condo Median Sales Prices


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Appreciation by San Francisco District
by Year since 2004

The next 2 charts glance at house value appreciation in major districts around the city, from most affordable to more expensive to most expensive. As mentioned before, houses in more affordable neighborhoods have seen the most competitive market dynamic, and most consistent appreciation, in recent years.

It can be challenging to measure appreciation in the most expensive price segments, because, firstly, there are not that many sales, and secondly, because of the huge range of sales prices within those segments ($3m to $30m for luxury houses in SF; $2m to $22m for condos and co-ops), but it may well be that their values have mostly plateaued since 2015, or in some instances, ticked down. This can be seen in the second chart below with average dollar per square foot values declining a little in the most expensive house district in the city, Pacific Heights-Marina. But, again, it all depends on the specific property, its location and circumstances.


Median House Sales Prices by District
since 2004




Average Price per Square Foot House Values
since 2004

Pacific Heights -Noe Valley- Sunset Average Dollar per Square Foot


We have hundreds of other analyses on San Francisco neighborhood house and condo prices and appreciation trends: SF Neighborhood Values & SF Neighborhood Appreciation Trends.

Or simply contact us regarding the neighborhoods you are specifically interested in.


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San Francisco Luxury Home Market

Luxury home sales started off very strong in 2018, but the supply and demand dynamics are softer than in the general market. In the ultra-luxury condo market, in those neighborhoods where new, high-price condo construction is concentrated, supply is now outpacing demand. We just did a massive update of our luxury home analysis and it can be found in its entirety here: Paragon Luxury Market Report.

Below are a few samples of charts in the complete report.


Year-over-Year Sales Comparisons
First 6 Weeks of the Year

San Francisco Luxury Home Sales 2018 YTD


Active Luxury House Listings by District

San Francisco Luxury House Listings


SF Luxury House Sales by Era of Construction

San Francisco Luxury House Sales - Era of Construction


Active Luxury Condo & Co-op Listings by District

San Francisco Luxury Condo Listings


Supply & Demand: Ultra-Luxury Condos & Co-ops

San Francisco Ultra-luxury condo market

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Long-Term Trends in Inventory

Only about 2% of house owners are putting their homes on the market each year, which is incredibly low by historical measures. About 5% of condo owners sell their homes each year, plus the new-construction condos that come on the market. This dynamic has made houses into the scarce commodity, and has fueled dramatic house price appreciation.



New Listings Coming on Market
Long-Term Trends




Active Listings on Market at End of Month
Long-Term Trends




Short-Term Trends: Seasonality

We are just heading now into the biggest sales season of the year, running from March through mid-June. The real estate market in the city is significantly affected by seasonality, and the luxury segment is even more fiercely affected. We shall also see if rising interest rates (if they continue to rise) or the changes in the federal tax law start to have any significant dampening effects on demand.



Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract) br> General Market




New Listings Coming on Market
Luxury Home Market



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Selected Supply & Demand Statistics

The following charts illustrate 3 of the classic indicators of market heat, and all of them speak to the feverish real estate market we have seen so far in 2018. However, the market is clearly hottest in the non-luxury price segment, and cooler in the highest price ranges, which is illustrated in the fourth chart below.



Average Days on Market
Year-over-Year Comparisons




Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
by Month




Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)
Year-over-Year Comparisons




Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)
by Property Type & Price Segment

The market is softer in the highest price ranges
especially for the most expensive condos



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Average $/Sq.Ft. Value by House Size


All things being equal, house size and price per square foot go in opposite directions, i.e. a smaller house will sell for a lower sales price but a higher dollar per square foot value. This has to do with land value and the cost of systems, kitchens and baths. This is why, comparing two periods of time, it is possible that median sales prices can go up while dollar per square foot values go down, or there is a significant mismatch in the appreciation rates - the average size of the houses sold significantly changed between the periods, which happens sometimes. The charts below are of 2 districts with both a good number of sales and relatively homogenous values within the district.

In both the cases below, the difference in price per square foot between smaller houses and the largest houses runs about $200, a 15% to 20% difference.








The above effect does not always apply: For example, in Pacific Heights, the biggest houses are also often in the most prestigious locations with the best views, and so command a premium in price per square foot despite their size. And this often does not apply to condo sales, because bigger units are often built higher up in the building, with more expensive finishes, delivering better (or staggering) views, and thus selling for higher $/sq.ft. values.

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Rising Mortgage Interest Rates

Short-Term Trends




Long-Term Trends

Long-Term Mortgage Interest Rate Trends


Debt in America

One of the macro-economic factors of concern is that debt levels, of virtually every kind, are hitting new highs in the country (and in the world). This has been heavily subsidized by the historically low interest rates prevailing in recent years, but rates appear to be headed upward, and increasing debt often plays a big role in market cycles.


Debt Taken On to Invest in Financial Markets
(Often a Sign of Investor Over-Exuberance)




Household Non-Housing Debt
Credit Cards, Student Loans, Car Financing




Household Mortgage Debt Service Ratio

The amount of total mortgage debt in the country is now about the same as at its last peak in 2008 (not illustrated on this chart), but because of the plunge in interest rates since then, the ratio of mortgage debt service to disposable income was close to an all-time low in mid-2017. Interest rates have been rising since then, but are still about 30% lower than in 2007. The good news is that so much of mortgage debt in America is now in fixed-rate loans at very low interest rates, which adds much stability to economic conditions, a stability grievously lacking at the time of the 2008 financial markets crash.





Link to additional charts on debt


Additional reading for those interested:

Paragon Main Real Estate Reports Page

Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Markets

Survey of Bay Area Real Estate Markets

San Francisco & Bay Area Demographics



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San Francisco Real Estate Market

Looking Back on 2017,
Looking Forward to 2018


The median SF house sales price in 2017 was $1,420,000 (up from $1,325,000 in 2016), and for condos, it was $1,150,000 (up from $1,095,000). Looking just at the 4th quarter, median prices were $1,500,000 for houses (up from $1,350,000 in Q4 2016) and $1,185,000 for condos (up from $1,078,000) respectively.

San Francisco, CA, National Home Price Trends

San Francisco House Condo TIC Median Price Trends by Year

San Francisco Median Home Prices by Quarter

Additional chart: Bay Area Median Home Price Trends by County


The chart below, based on S&P Case-Shiller Index data, tracks general price appreciation trends of homes in the upper third of prices in the 5-county SF Metro Area. Case-Shiller does not base their calculations on median sales price changes but uses its own proprietary algorithm. This chart has been simplified to only reflect percentage increases and decreases from various points in real estate cycles. Since it covers 5 counties, it is a very generalized illustration.

Case-Shiller San Francisco Bay Area Home Price Trends


Link to our full report on the Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Link to our report on SF Bay Area real estate cycles

Link to our updated survey of Bay Area R.E. Markets


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Moving into 2018, there are a lot of spinning plates in the air - local, state, national and international factors that could affect markets. 2017 saw real estate markets surge and financial markets soar. After some cooling from mid-2015 to mid-2016, the Bay Area high-tech economy surged back into high speed, with companies leasing enormous spaces in newly built office buildings - which they will presumably fill with new hires. Unemployment rates have flirted with historic lows, and 2018 may see some major local IPOs, which could create great quantities of new wealth. The Bay Area still has probably the most dynamic, innovation-fueled economy in the world and indisputably remains among the great metro areas on the planet - but there are also significant social, economic, political and environmental challenges looming.

Article link: Positive & Negative Factors in Bay Area Markets

Congress delivered an unpleasant holiday present to many Bay Area residents in the form of federal tax law changes limiting the deductibility of mortgage interest and state and local taxes. The effect of these changes make living in an already high cost-of-living area more costly for many residents, and also reduce some of the financial incentives of homeownership, especially for more expensive homes. Predictions on the effect of these tax changes on local housing markets and the business environment range from one extreme (economic devastation) to the other (shrug), and the state legislature is currently working on bills that might blunt the negative financial impacts. It is too early to guess how it will all play out. We live in interesting times.

This January 2018 report will range far and wide looking at real estate, and some economic and demographic issues that impact it. Most of the charts are self-explanatory, so we have kept the text to a minimum. A review of annual, year-over-year, real estate market trends in San Francisco are at the end of this report.


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San Francisco Home Sales by Property Type

San Francisco Probates Views Values

San Francisco New Home Listings Coming on Market

Link to our report on market seasonality


California Migration Trends in 2016

Link to our analysis of domestic and foreign migration trends

Link to our new survey of SF & Bay Area demographics


San Francisco Bay Area Population Growth

San Francisco Employment Growth by Year

S&P 500 Index by Year

Annual Mortgage Rate Trends

Link to our report on economic context factors


San Francisco Housing Affordability Trends

Link to our report on Bay Area housing affordability


San Francisco Bay Area Rent Trends

Link to our report on the apartment building market


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San Francisco Luxury Homes Market

San Francisco Luxury House Sales by Year

San Francisco Luxury House Sales by Neighborhood

San Francisco Luxury Condo Sales by Year

San Francisco Luxury Condo Sales by Neighborhood

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SF Home Prices by Neighborhood

San Francisco Neighborhood & District Map


San Francisco houses under a million dollars

San Francisco houses under 3 million dollars

San Francisco 4-bedroom house prices

San Francisco 3-bedroom house prices

San Francisco 1-bedroom condo prices

San Francisco 2-bedroom condo prices

San Francisco Condo Sales by Price Segment

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Annual Market Trends

Most of these annual trend charts show the market heating up again in 2017 after some cooling in 2016. Very generally speaking, since 2015, the house market has been hotter than the condo market, and the more affordable neighborhoods hotter than the more expensive. But 2017 was a strong year across virtually all market segments.

San Francisco annual median house price percentage changes

 San Francisco annual condo price percentage changes

San Francisco Listings Selling Quickly

San Francisco Home Price Overbidding

San Francisco Days on Market by Year

San Francisco Months Supply of Inventory by Year

San Francisco Supply and Demand Trends


All our real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports

Information on neighborhoods not included in this report is readily available.

If you will forgive a little celebration on our part: In 2017, Paragon became the largest brokerage in San Francisco by dollar volume sales of residential and multi-unit residential real estate (as reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics). We opened our doors in 2004.



It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. Late-reported MLS activity may change certain statistics to some small degree.

© 2018 Paragon Real Estate Group

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Late Autumn 2017 Market Report

San Francisco Monthly Median Home Price Trends


The October 2017 median house sales price in San Francisco surged over $100,000 above the previous peak in May to hit a new high at $1,588,000 (sales reported by 11/5/17). A major factor was that October was also a record-breaking month for luxury house sales, and more sales of expensive homes pull up the median price. The median condo sales price, at $1,180,000, was a tad below the recent peak hit in August, and luxury condo sales reported to MLS were well below their peak sales volume reached this past June. The luxury market is covered further down in this report.

We prefer measuring median price trends by periods longer than 1 month (which are prone to fluctuate considerably without great meaningfulness), and the updated chart at the top of this webpage illustrates rolling 3-month median price trends for houses and condos, and 6-month rolling median prices for TICs. Remember that median price changes are not perfect measurements of changes in fair market value.


S&P Case-Shiller Index Measurement of Appreciation

And this chart below based on CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller data compares the appreciation of the more expensive Bay Area home markets (blue line) - such as most of SF, Marin, San Mateo and Diablo Valley - to the overall national trend (green line), going back to 1987. It is interesting to see where our local appreciation rates have diverged from national rates: The divergence since 2012 has been particularly striking.

Note that the numbers on this chart all refer to a January 2000 price of 100. So, the Bay Area reading of 238 means that home prices here have appreciated, according to Case-Shiller, by 138% since January 2000. National home prices appreciated by 95% over the period.


San Francisco vs National Home Price Appreciation

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San Francisco Neighborhood & Realtor District Map

San Francisco Neighborhood & District Map


San Francisco Market Overviews

SF House, Condo & TIC Sales by Realtor District

Some districts are dominated by house sales and others by condo sales. The most balanced is the greater Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys district with almost equal numbers of both. Condo sales now outnumber house sales in the city, a trend which will continue to accelerate with new construction. Looking at the horizontal columns below, the gray portion represents house sales, the teal, condo sales, and the green, TIC sales.


San Francisco House & Condo Sales by District


SF Home Sales by Price Segment

Home sales under $1m are dwindling, and 70% of those are condos or TICs.
The highest number of sales is now in the $1m to $1.5m price segment.

San Francisco Home Sales by Price Segment


Sales by Property Type & Bedroom Count

Compared to other Bay Area markets, SF has more small, 2-bedroom houses and fewer big, 5+ BR, house sales - and far more condo sales at much higher prices than in other counties. By far the most prevalent SF home sale now is a 2-bedroom condo.


San Francisco Average Sales Prices by Bedroom Count


Link to Chart: New Listings Trends since 2007

Link to Chart: Unit Sales Trends since 2007


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San Francisco Luxury Homes Market

As mentioned before, luxury house sales hit a new high in October 2017: For some reason, in recent years, October has become the biggest month for very expensive house sales. This is not the case for luxury condos, which typically peak in spring. Looking at broader trends in the second chart below, the luxury home market grew dramatically from 2012 through 2015, cooled significantly in 2016 (especially the luxury condo segment), and then surged back in 2017 to hit new highs. But then everything seems to be surging higher nowadays, from stock markets to home and iPhone prices.

Luxury house sales in October were concentrated, highest to lowest numbers, in the Pacific Heights-Marina district (D7), the Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys district (D5), and the Lake Street-Sea Cliff district (D1). These 3 districts contained about 80% of sales. Other luxury house sales were scattered singly around the city: Russian Hill, Telegraph Hill, Inner Sunset, Potrero Hill, Mission, Bernal Heights, Hayes Valley and Lower Pacific Heights. The 3 districts that dominated luxury condo sales, with 9 to 11 sales each, were the Russian & Nob Hills district (D8), Pacific Heights-Marina (D7), and the South Beach-Mission district (D9). There were also a handful of sales in Noe-Eureka Valley (D5), and a couple in Lake Street-Richmond (D1). (Sales reported by 11/5/17.)

San Francisco Luxury House Sales by Month

Link to Chart: Luxury Condo Sales by Month


San Francisco Luxury Home Sales Trends

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Median Home Price Trends by Neighborhood
2005 to Present

Following are 2 charts on houses and one on condos illustrating home price appreciation trends over the past 12 years in selected neighborhoods. We generally picked neighborhoods with greater quantities of sales, but please contact us if you would like information on one not included below. (The highest priced house neighborhoods like Pacific and Presidio Heights - with median prices in the $6m range - have relatively few sales and an enormous range in sales prices, which has a tendency to make the trend lines jump up and down somewhat erratically.)


Neighborhoods with current median house prices under $1.5m have generally
seen smooth, consistent appreciation since the recovery began in 2012.

San Francisco Neighborhood More Affordable Median House Price Trends


Neighborhoods with current median house prices of $1.5m to $3m:
Some of these saw median price dips in 2016, but recovered in 2017

San Francisco Median House Price Trends over $1,500,000


Two-Bedroom Condos - Median Sales Price Trends:
Some SF condo markets saw significant dips in 2016, but recovered in 2017

On the chart below, South Beach would ideally be divided into two distinct neighborhoods, with condos on lower floors of highrises in the less expensive one, and condos on higher floors in the more expensive one. Since that is not easily possible, the median price below is a blend of both. To a large degree, all median sales prices are derived from a blend of a wide range of individual sales, but the highrise dynamic is concentrated in the greater South Beach area.


San Francisco Median 2-bedroom Condo Price Trends

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SF Neighborhoods & Property Types: Hottest to Coolest Markets

The following charts looks at the various districts of the city by a number of standard statistical measures of supply and demand, or market heat. As has been the case for the last couple years, generally speaking, the greatest pressure of buyer demand has continued to be focused on the more affordable house neighborhoods (affordable by SF standards), such as most of those in the Sunset/Parkside District.

Note: These are general statistics and small differences between districts or market segments are not particularly significant. .


Overbidding Asking Prices

First houses and then condos: The higher the %, the hotter the market.
Some of these percentages are staggeringly high.

San Francisco Neighborhood Overbidding House List Prices


Overbidding in the condo market is not quite as frantic as with houses.

San Francisco Neighborhood Overbidding Condo Prices


Months Supply of Inventory & Average Days on Market

First houses, then condos: The lower the statistics, the hotter the market.

San Francisco Houses - Months Supply of Inventory and Days on Market

San Francisco Inventory and Days on Market - Condos

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Hottest to Coolest by Price Segment & Property Type

To a large degree, what is seen below dovetails with the analysis by district above: More affordable home segments are strongest, and the affordable house segment in particular is the most feverish of all. The ultra-luxury condo market is, by far, the softest segment: Part of this is certainly competition from new, luxury condo projects coming on market.



San Francisco Sales Prices to List Prices

San Francisco Market Absorption Rate

San Francisco MSI by Price Range

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Seasonality & the SF Homes Market

Advantages to buying during the mid-November to mid-January slowdown

Just before Thanksgiving the market begins to rapidly subside until starting to revive about 7-8 weeks later. Many buyers simply check out during this period, but there are good reasons for staying engaged - mainly the possibility of getting a much better deal. Starting in October and extending into November, sellers begin reducing prices in large numbers as they try to capture the attention of disappearing buyers: Buyers should treat these as brand new listings and take a new look. Competition between buyers drops dramatically during the mid-winter period, and since competitive bidding is the biggest single factor behind higher prices, its decline can mean significant savings. Fewer buyers also means that sellers are often more willing to negotiate: Throw offers in at whatever price you feel is right and see where they go. It is true that the number of new listings coming on markets plunges, but there are still hundreds of listings to consider for those willing to stay in the game.

The red lines in the charts below illustrate these big, seasonal market shifts.


Price Reductions Soar in October/November

San Francisco Home Price Reductions


Overbidding Declines

San Francisco Overbidding Seasonality

San Francisco Seasonality Selling over List Price


Average Days on Market Increases
Making sellers more willing to negotiate

San Francisco Market Seasonality - Days on Market


Inventory Drops
But hundreds of listings remain on market

San Francisco Seasonality and Active Listings on Market


Median Home Prices Drop
due to a number of factors, including a reduction in demand

San Francisco Seasonality and Median home prices


All our real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports

Link to SF Neighborhood Home Price Tables

Link to our SF luxury house market update

Link to our SF luxury condo market update

Link to our apartment building market report

Please let us know if you have questions or we can be of assistance in any other way. Information on neighborhoods not included in this report is readily available.


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Mortgage Interest Rates

Interest rates are somewhat above their all-time lows, but still very, very low by historic standards. This is of enormous importance to buyers financing their home purchases.


Short-Term Rate Trends

Short-Term Mortgage Interest Rate Trends


Long-Term Trends

Long-Term Mortgage Interest Rate Trends

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It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

© 2017 Paragon Real Estate Group


Extremely Low Inventory + Continuing Strong Demand =
High-Pressure Q3 San Francisco Real Estate Market

October 2017, Q3 Review

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Year-over-year, a low inventory homes market dropped even lower, while buyer demand increased to keep the pot boiling in San Francisco through the third quarter, when activity typically cools down between the spring and autumn selling seasons. Since closed sales in each month mostly reflect the market heat in the previous month, when the offers are actually negotiated, we will not have hard data on September until October sales data becomes available in November. One thing we do know is that the number of new listings coming on market in September, which is usually the month of the year with the highest number of new listings, is down considerably from last year - but the number of listings accepting offers increased: Less inventory, more demand.


Q3 SF Median Home Sales Price Changes since 2005

San Francisco Q3 Median Home Price Trends


The Q3 SF median house sales price was $1,365,000 and the median SF condo sales price was $1,175,000, considerable year-over-year increases over Q3 2016 prices: 7% and 11% respectively. It is not unusual for median prices to drop from Q2 to Q3, to a large degree due to the seasonal decline in luxury home sales, as well as the typical overall market cooling during the summer, and this occurred for houses, which dropped $75,000 from Q2, similar to drops in previous years. But condos bucked this trend and increased $40,000 quarter to quarter. (Q2 to Q3 change is not illustrated on this chart.) However, while the house inventory in the city has been relatively unchanged for 60+ years, tens of thousands of new condos have come into the market over recent decades, which means that comparing the basket of sales in different periods is not always apples to apples.


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Q3 San Francisco Market Trends since 2005
Comparing Q3 statistics for the past 12 years

Q3 New Listings Coming on Market since 2005

New listings hitting the market dropped appreciably year-over-year, doing no favors for buyers competing for homes in Q3 overall, and in September specifically.


San Francisco Q3 New Home Listings on Market


Months Supply of Inventory (MSI), Q3 since 2005

MSI compares demand to supply in one statistic: The lower the MSI, the higher the demand vs. the number of listings available to purchase. The MSI for the SF house market in Q3 2017 was as low as in any Q3 during the past 12 years. For San Francisco condos, the MSI was somewhat higher, but still historically low (but does not include the substantial inventory of new-project condo listings, not listed in MLS). Both are down significantly from Q3 of 2016: 2016 was a cooler market between two very hot markets in 2015 and 2017.


San Francisco Q3 Months Supply of Inventory


Average Days on Market, Q3 since 2005

San Francisco Q3 Days on Market

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Overbidding List Prices
since December 2015

In the last 6 years, overbidding percentages have usually declined from the Q2 spring selling season to the quieter Q3 summer market. But not this year: This year overbidding increased in July and September to their highest points since mid-2015.


San Francisco Overbidding Home Prices

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Context Economic Factors to Bay Area Housing Markets



We recently completed a report placing the Bay Area housing market within the context of a wide variety of other economic and demographic dynamics, such as population growth, employment and hiring, the stock and the IPO markets, consumer confidence, interest rates, commercial lease rates, , aging homeowners (who sell less frequently), housing affordability and new housing construction. Because conditions, trends and cycles seen among them are, more often than not, closely interrelated. The full report is online here: Economic Context Report.

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San Francisco Luxury House & Condo Markets






In September, we issued 2 detailed reports on the San Francisco luxury house market, and the SF luxury condo, co-op and TIC market. Above are 2 of many updated analyses. The complete reports can be found here:

Link to our SF luxury house market update

Link to our SF luxury condo and co-op market update

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San Francisco Investment Property Market




After dropping in 2016, SF residential rents appear to be making a small recovery, though the data is still very short-term, and there are thousands of new apartments in the new construction pipeline in the city. This chart is from our latest report on the San Francisco, Alameda and Marin multi-unit residential markets:

Link to our apartment building market report

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Trends in Selected San Francisco Neighborhoods

We have dozens of analyses of appreciation trends within specific SF neighborhoods and districts, and below is a sampling, some by median sales price and others by average dollar per square foot value. Some city neighborhoods plateaued or saw declines in values in 2016, when segments of the market distinctly cooled: Generally speaking, these were more expensive home segments, and condo markets most impacted by new-project condos coming on market with major new supply. Affordable house markets largely continued to appreciate in 2016. In 2017 to date, most areas of the city have experienced further appreciation.

Changes in these statistics do not necessarily correspond exactly to changes in fair market value, as they can be affected by a variety of factors. Neighborhoods with relatively few sales and broader ranges in individual sales prices are most prone to fluctuations unrelated to changes in fair market value. Longer-term trends are always more meaningful than shorter term. If you are interested in a neighborhood not included below, please let us know.























Please let us know if you have questions or we can be of assistance in any other way. Information on neighborhoods not included in this report is readily available.

SF neighborhood home price tables: Median Sales Prices by Bedroom Count

All our real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports

Over the past 12 months, Paragon sold more San Francisco residential and multi-unit residential real estate than any other brokerage. (Dollar volume sales reported to MLS per Broker Metrics.)

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It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

© 2017 Paragon Real Estate Group


Will the Fall Market Stay Hot or Shift Cooler?

September 2017 Report

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Generally speaking, late summer market dynamics (or, for that matter, during the mid-winter doldrums) are not of great significance and do not tell us much about where the market is heading. September, however, is usually the single month with the greatest number of new listings hitting the market in San Francisco, and that surge fuels sales through mid-November, when activity begins to plunge. The coming two months will be the next major indicator: Will the SF market continue to maintain the intense high-demand, low-supply heat of this past spring, or will it cool? While the entire market is affected by seasonality, the luxury home segment is fiercely so, and the next couple months will be the peak selling period for high-end homes until spring 2018 rolls around.


City-Wide Home Appreciation Trends since 2005
Median Sales Prices & Average Dollar per Square Foot Values


San Francisco Median Home Sales Price Trends

San Francisco Average Dollar per Square Foot Trends

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San Francisco Neighborhood Appreciation Rates
2011 to 2017 YTD, Median Sales Price Change

Median sales prices are not perfect indicators of changes in values for specific homes: They can be and often are affected by factors other than changes in fair market value, and shorter-term anomalies are not uncommon. What is certainly true is that every part of the city has seen tremendous appreciation since the recovery began in 2012, however the percentages on the charts below should be considered very approximate indications of the scale of change.

These charts delineate 2011 and 2017 YTD median sales prices by neighborhood, as well as the percentage change between the two. The 2 charts on house appreciation are followed by 2 on condo appreciation. If you wish information on a neighborhood not included in the charts below, please let us know.


SF HOUSE Median Sales Price Appreciation Rates

SF Neighborhood House Price Appreciation

NOTE: A perfect example of how median price changes can misrepresent changes in fair market value can be seen above: Typically, Noe Valley and Eureka Valley (Castro) have very similar median house prices, but in 2017 YTD, the Eureka Valley median price unexpectedly jumped by an astonishing $500,000 (23%), putting it far above Noe, and giving it a much higher overall appreciation rate. However, the average size of houses sold in Eureka Valley so far in 2017 suddenly jumped by 22% from 2016: That is, its houses didn’t just suddenly and inexplicably have a tremendous jump in value: the average size of homes sold changed, probably temporarily. Monthly median price changes in particular, trumpeted everywhere in the media as vitally important, are often unreliable due to seasonality and the small size of the data set.

SF Neighborhood Home Price Appreciation


SF CONDO Median Sales Price Appreciation Rates

Thousands of newly constructed condos, which typically sell for higher prices than resale condos, have hit the market in recent years, which means year-over-year comparisons are not always apples to apples. Generally speaking, comparable-condo appreciation rates have been well below house appreciation rates since 2015, because of the difference in the supply available to purchase.


San Francisco Neighborhood Condo Price Appreciation

SF Neighborhood Condo Price Appreciation

All our real estate market analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports


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The September Rush of New Listings

General Market

San Francisco New Listings


Luxury Home Market

For some reason, September 2016 saw a stupendous rush of luxury home listings coming on market, which among other effects led to the highest monthly number of luxury house sales ever in October 2016. (As an aside, luxury condo and co-op sales hit their highest sales volume this past June.)



San Francisco New Luxury Home Listings

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Long-term Trends in Listing Inventory

A declining number of homes being listed for sale adds significant pressure to the market.

SF New Home Listing Trends

San Francisco Listing Inventory Trends

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Where to Look in Your Price Range

In August, we updated our complete series of charts delineating where one is most likely to find a home in any specific price range. Below are 2 of the charts, and the entire series can be found here: SF Neighborhood Affordability.


San Francisco Condo Prices by Neighborhood

San Francisco House Prices by Neighborhood

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National Housing Affordability

This next chart illustrates home affordability for selected metro areas across the country as calculated by the National Association of Realtors. The 7 Bay Area counties, in our 2 metro areas, are the least affordable in the nation - not the happiest of distinctions, except for those planning to sell and move out of the area.


U.S. Metro Area Housing Affordability


San Francisco, California & the United States

The appreciation of home prices in San Francisco since 2011 has out-performed overall state and national markets by a substantial margin.


San Francisco, California and US Home Price Trends

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County House Markets

Since San Francisco is considered the big city in the Bay Area (though San Jose is actually larger), it seems counter-intuitive that its house market is one of the smallest, but this is a major part of its ruling dynamic: Very little supply compared to intense demand. Owners in the city (and the nation) are getting older, and selling their houses ever more infrequently. And virtually no new houses are being built within SF itself.



SF Bay Area House Markets


Condo sales significantly outnumber house sales in SF, and the supply of condos available to purchase has surged with new project construction. This has made that market segment somewhat less heated; condo owners also tend to sell more frequently than house owners. However, the condo market in the city is much more expensive than in other counties.

Additional Chart: Bay Area Condo Markets


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Ultra-Luxury House Sales in San Francisco
Houses Selling for $5 Million & Above

A quick look at the very highest end of the SF market. Though other districts, such as the greater Noe-Eureka-Cole Valleys district, have increasingly surged into the luxury home segment, when it comes to the realm of the really big, most expensive houses, the district comprised of Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow and Marina dominates with 75% of sales. House sales there can exceed $30m, though that is still very rare.



Most expensive houses in San Francisco

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This Case-Shiller chart illustrates how homes in different price segments around the Bay Area have recently been appreciating at considerably different rates. C-S divides all the Bay Area house sales into thirds by number of sales: low-, mid- and high-price. As illustrated in the lower green line, the higher-priced segment went flat in appreciation in 2016, but then jumped back to life in 2017. The most affordable price segment (top blue line) has been experiencing the highest pressure of buyer demand and competitive bidding, and since April 2016, has out-appreciated the most expensive segment, 12.4% to 4.3%, i.e. almost triple the rate of increase. The middle price segment (gold line) has been in between, appreciating by 7.8%.

These dynamics are generally true within each county, as buyers, somewhat desperately, search for homes they can still afford, in the area they wish to live.

The numbers on this chart all refer to a January 2000 home price of 100. Thus 262 signifies a price 162% higher than in 2000.



Case-Shiller SF Home Price Trends by Price Tier

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Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)

The lower the months supply of inventory, the higher the demand as compared to the supply of homes available to purchase, i.e. lower MSI equals a hotter market. The entire Bay Area has been experiencing very, very low MSI figures recently, with San Mateo at rock bottom. (Its median house sales price has just recently been exceeding the median price in the city.) Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, generally offering considerably more affordable home prices than Silicon Valley, San Francisco and Marin are also at extreme lows.

Within SF itself, the MSI for houses alone, and especially in the more affordable neighborhoods, is substantially lower than the MSI for condos, though both have been very low since spring began.


SF Bay Area Months Supply of Inventory

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Long-term San Francisco Market Statistics

Days on Market

San Francisco Average Days on Market


Months Supply of Inventory

San Francisco Months Supply of Inventory

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Please let us know if you have questions or we can be of assistance in any other way. Information on neighborhoods not included in this report is readily available.

All our many Bay Area real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports

Over the past 12 months, Paragon sold more San Francisco residential and multi-unit residential real estate than any other brokerage. (Sales reported to MLS per Broker Metrics.)

------------------------------------------------------------

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

© 2017-2018 Paragon Real Estate Group