2016 YTD Report on Neighborhood Home Values
Our updated home-price MAP by neighborhood: SF Neighborhood Median House & Condo Prices
. For maximum legibility of the 70-odd different neighborhoods, another neighborhood map is provided at the bottom of this
The first charts below look at the number of house and condo sales in different districts around the city, with notations of median sales prices and average dollar per square foot values. Note that a district
will often contain neighborhoods of differing values. Further below, we break down where one is most likely to find a house or condo in a given price segment - under $1,000,0000, $1,000,000 to $1,500,000, and so on - by specific neighborhoods.
3 most affordable of San Francisco’s districts make up almost half of its house sales:
District 10 (Bayview-Excelsior-Crocker Amazon), District 2 (Sunset-Parkside) and District 3
(Lakeshore-Ingleside). These districts run from the southwest corner of the
city across the city’s southern border neighborhoods. Generally, speaking these
districts were built out later than the Victorian-Edwardian-Spanish Mediterranean
architectural era prior to 1930, and feature smaller houses. They have
continued to be very strong markets due to their relative affordability. Some
of the most expensive neighborhoods such as Pacific Heights, Russian Hill, Sea
Cliff and St. Francis Wood have relatively few house sales, and their house
sizes tend to be the largest in the city. The average house size in Pacific and Presidio Heights is 3 times larger than that for Excelsior and Portola, which will obviously impact prices above and beyond many other factors.
If one includes
new construction condos, the South Beach-SoMa-Mission Bay district, which didn’t
housing 25 years ago, now has twice as many condo sales as any other district
of the city – a trend that continues to accelerate with big, new projects
planned or under construction. Though its median price isn’t especially high
for the city, it has a very substantial luxury and ultra-luxury condo segment
featuring some of the most expensive buildings in San Francisco. It also
features something like 95% of all the high-rise residential construction in
the city – it is on the upper floors of those buildings, with their staggering
views, that one finds some of the highest priced condos west of New York City. These units can sell for $1400 to $2000 per square foot.
speaking, older condos located in buildings built prior to 1930 are 10% to 15% larger
than those constructed since 2000.
The charts below are based upon San Francisco home
sales reported to MLS in 2016 YTD through 8/17/16,
breaking out the neighborhoods with the most
given price points. Other neighborhoods not listed did have smaller numbers of sales
within given price segments.
Where to Buy a HOUSE in San Francisco for under $1
The overall median HOUSE price in the city in
the first half of 2016 was $1,350,000, so the under-million-dollar house is
becoming increasingly rare. For context, in 2011, 75% of San Francisco's house sales were below $1,000,000; in 2016 YTD, that percentage has dropped to 26%. The vast majority of house sales in this
price segment now occur in a large swath of neighborhoods running across the
southern border of the city, which are by far its most affordable house markets:
from Bayview through Portola, Excelsior, Visitacion Valley and Crocker Amazon,
to Oceanview and Ingleside.
The chart’s horizontal columns reflect the
number of sales of houses with at least 2 bedrooms, with parking, for under $1
million, while the median sales prices noted are for all 2BR house sales during
the period. Median price provides a good idea of overall neighborhood house
Where to Buy a CONDO, CO-OP or TIC in San Francisco for under $1 million
The overall SF median condo price in the first half of 2016 was $1,100,000, and sales under $1m still occur in almost
every area of the city that features these property types – but a studio unit
in Russian Hill may cost as much as a 2-bedroom condo in Diamond Heights. Note that these charts only reflect sales reported to MLS, and many new-project condo sales do not.
Of these property types, condos make up about
90% of sales, stock co-op apartments 1 to 2%, with TICs making up the balance.
TICs typically sell at a significant discount (10% - 20%) to similar condos.
The horizontal columns reflect the number of
sales under $1m broken out by 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom units. You can see that if you want to buy a condo in the South Beach/Mission Bay district, you are pretty much limited to 1BR units (or studio units). The box of median
sales prices is just for 1BR units, again simply to give an idea of relative
values between neighborhoods.
Spending $1 Million to $1.5
Million in San Francisco
In this price point for houses, one starts
moving into another layer of neighborhoods in the west and the central-south
areas of the city: The Sunset and
Parkside neighborhoods, Golden Gate Heights, Miraloma Park, Sunnyside, Mission Terrace, Bernal Heights and others
as shown. There has been a lot of upward pressure on these areas in the past 2
years in particular.
The horizontal columns reflect the number of
sales, with the average dollar per square foot values for the homes in this
price range noted alongside.
Condo and co-op sales in this price range are
mostly concentrated in those areas where newer condo developments have surged
onto market over the past 10 – 15 years, and continue to arrive in increasing
numbers – South Beach, Mission Bay, Inner Mission, Hayes Valley, Dogpatch, SoMa – as well as
in high-end neighborhoods such as Pacific Heights, Russian Hill and the greater
Noe-Eureka Valleys area.
Buying a HOUSE for $1.5 million to
Buying a HOUSE for $2 million to $2.5
When you get to the $2 to 2.5 million dollars range, the house
market becomes dominated by the greater Noe-Eureka-Cole Valleys district, the
St. Francis Wood-Forest Hill district, the Potrero Hill-Inner Mission area, and
the Inner-Central Richmond and Lake Street area.
Buying a LUXURY HOME in San
For the sake of this report, houses selling for
$2.5 million and above, and condos, co-ops and TICs selling for $1.5 million
and above are designated (somewhat arbitrarily) as luxury home sales. What you
get in different neighborhoods for your millions of dollars will vary widely. Views
often play a significant role in SF home values, but particularly in the luxury
condo market, where the most expensive units often offer staggering views from
very high floors. Over the past 15 years – and accelerating in the current
market recovery – there have occurred some very large shifts in the luxury home
market, with districts other than the old-prestige, northern neighborhoods becoming
major destinations for (very) high-end homebuyers. However the northern
neighborhoods like Pacific Heights still dominate the ultra-high end in SF:
houses selling for $5 million or more. The greater South Beach-Yerba Buena
area, with its many new luxury condo towers now has more luxury condo sales
than any other area.
Luxury CONDO, CO-OP & TIC
San Francisco Neighborhood
For prevailing SF median house and condo prices,
map of neighborhood values can be found here:
Other updated reports you might find
Our Most Recent Market
30+ Years of San
Francisco Real Estate Cycles
:This is by far the most popular article on
our website – for 3 years running.
Market Overview Analytics
auto-updating charts for all the standard real estate statistics – median sales
price, average dollar per square foot, days on market, months supply of
inventory, listings for sale, and so on.
District Sales Overview
: A breakdown of sales by
price segment for 14 different sections of the city.
10 Big Factors behind the San Francisco Real
: A review of the major economic,
political and demographic issues underlying the city’s current market.
SAN FRANCISCO REALTOR DISTRICTS
District 1 (Northwest):
Sea Cliff, Lake Street, Richmond (Inner, Central, Outer), Jordan Park/Laurel Heights, Lone Mountain
District 2 (West):
Sunset & Parkside (Inner, Central, Outer), Golden Gate Heights
District 3 (Southwest):
Lake Shore, Lakeside, Merced Manor, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights, Oceanview
District 4 (Central SW):
St. Francis Wood, Forest Hill, West Portal, Forest Knolls, Diamond Heights, Midtown Terrace, Miraloma Park, Sunnyside, Balboa Terrace, Ingleside Terrace, Mt. Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, Monterey Heights, Westwood Highlands
District 5 (Central):
Noe Valley, Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights (Castro, Liberty Hill), Cole Valley, Glen Park, Corona Heights, Clarendon Heights, Ashbury Heights, Buena Vista Park, Haight Ashbury, Duboce Triangle, Twin Peaks, Mission Dolores, Parnassus Heights
District 6 (Central North):
Hayes Valley, North of Panhandle (NOPA), Alamo Square, Western Addition, Anza Vista, Lower Pacific Heights
District 7 (North):
Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow, Marina
District 8 (Northeast):
Russian Hill, Nob Hill, Telegraph Hill, North Beach, Financial District, North Waterfront, Downtown, Van Ness/ Civic Center, Tenderloin
District 9 (East):
SoMa, South Beach, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, Dogpatch, Bernal Heights, Inner Mission, Yerba Buena
District 10 (Southeast):
Bayview, Bayview Heights, Excelsior, Portola, Visitacion Valley, Silver Terrace, Mission Terrace, Crocker Amazon, Outer Mission
Some Realtor districts contain neighborhoods that are relatively homogeneous in general home values, such as districts 5 and 7, and others contain neighborhoods of wildly different values, such as district 8 which, for example, includes both Russian Hill and the Tenderloin.
As always, the quality of the specific location and the range
of amenities of the property; its curb appeal, condition, size and
graciousness; and the existence and quality of parking, views and outside space
can all significantly impact unit values.
© 2016 Paragon Real Estate Group
were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but they may
contain errors and are subject to revision. Statistics are generalities and how
they apply to any specific property is unknown without a tailored comparative
market analysis. Sales statistics of one month generally reflect offers
negotiated 4 – 6 weeks earlier. Median sales prices often
change with even the smallest change in the period of time or parameters of the
analysis. All numbers should be