Many more condos are sold in the South Beach/ Yerba Buena/ South of Market (SoMa)/ Mission Bay neighborhoods of San Francisco than any other area of the city, and since new construction is surging here, that trajectory will only continue. The market here is quite hot pursuant to the same trends as the city as a whole: high demand, low inventory, rapidly appreciating prices. The great majority of condos that are sold have been selling without any price reductions and averaging a sales price over asking price.
Overall Market Statistics for SoMa, South
Beach, Yerba Buena & Mission Bay
Active Listings on the Market
The number of listings on the market at any given time is
determined by 3 big factors: seasonality, buyer demand and the motivation of prospective
sellers to sell. In the 5-year line chart, one can see the huge decline in
listings available to purchase at any given time over the past 4 years. Note
that many of the bigger new-condo projects do not list their condos on MLS (in their first sales to the public) and thus
will not show up in the chart below: big new projects do hit the market every now and then in this district and quite a few more are coming.
Number of Listings Accepting Offers (Going under
This basic measure of market activity depends upon both
buyer demand and the number of listings available to purchase. Above and beyond
seasonality, a big surge in condo listings accepting offers may indicate that a
new development came on market during that period. On the other hand, if a big
development came on market off-MLS, i.e. didn’t list the condos on MLS, then
the chart below might not reflect a large quantity of properties going under
contract – for example, the Lumina project in South Beach accepted hundreds
offers Q4 2014 – Q1 2015, but they won’t show up below.
Median 2-Bedroom Condo Sales Prices
6-month rolling averages
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales
occurred for more and half for less. It typically conceals a large variety of
different prices in the underlying individual sales, and can also be affected
by other factors besides changes in home values, such as seasonality and large
changes in the distressed, luxury-home or new-construction segments of the
market. Note that these median prices are specifically for 2-bedroom units.
Average Dollar per Square Foot on Sale
This statistic is based upon interior living space and
doesn’t include garages, storage rooms, decks or patios.Typically, square footage figures come from
appraisals or tax records, but square footage can be measured in different ways
and the figures can be unreliable. These values should be considered very
general statistical approximations.
Percentage of Sales Sold over List Price
Large percentages of sales in which the price
is bid up above asking price usually signifies spirited buyer competition for
new listings. Before 2012, this percentage typically ran between 20% and 30% of
sales. It has climbed to new heights in recent
years. This is another statistic that is affected by seasonality: Higher
percentages in spring and autumn, lower during the summer and winter holidays.
Median Percentage of Sales Price to List
This statistic measures the percentage of list price
achieved in the sales price. The higher the percentage the greater the
Median Days on Market
Under 30 days is considered a fast moving market. Below 20
days reflects extremely high buyer demand for new listings. This figure would
be even lower except that many San Francisco agents prefer to show their
listings for at least 10 to 14 days before the seller even reviews offers, so
as to fully expose the home to as many prospective buyers as possible and thus
maximize the potential of a bidding war.
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)
MSI measures how long it would take to sell the existing
inventory of listings for sale at current rates of market activity. Typically,
under 3 months of inventory is considered a seller’s market; 2 months or less
signify a very strong seller’s market: buyers snapping up new listings very
Unit Sales by Price Range
South Beach, Yerba Buena & Mission Bay Condo Values
South of Market (SoMa District) Condo Values
Luxury Condo Sales in Greater SoMa-South Beach Area
Sales of luxury condos in this area have been soaring and often sell for among the highest dollar per square values in the city, especially upper units with spectacular views in buildings such as the Millennium and Four Seasons.
San Francisco Luxury Condo Sales, $1,500,000 & Above
As one can see in this chart, the greater South Beach-SoMa area has a large and growing footprint in the luxury condo market segment in San Francisco.
reported to MLS 6/1/14 – 2/15/15. When identified, outlier sales that distort
the average $/sq.ft. value were deleted. Below Market Rate (BMR) units were
excluded from this analysis. Median and average statistics often conceal wide
varieties of values in the underlying individual sales – and how they apply to
any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market
analysis. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject
* When only a small number of sales report
square footage, the average dollar per square foot value is less reliable.
All data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision. Statistics are generalities and how they apply to any specific property is unknown without a tailored comparative market analysis. All numbers should be considered approximate.
© 2016 Paragon Real Estate Group