Overall District 5 Statistics
The next series of statistical charts pertain to the entire district. Following them, are analyses specific to different segments of the market there.
Active Listings on the Market
The number of listings on the market at any given time is determined by 3 big
factors: seasonality, buyer demand and the motivation of prospective sellers to sell. As one can see, inventory has declined dramatically since the market recovery began in 2012.
Number of Listings Accepting Offers (Going under
This basic measure of market activity depends upon both
buyer demand and the number of listings available to purchase. Above and beyond
seasonality, a big surge in condo listings accepting offers may indicate that a
new development came on market during that period.
Median Home Sales Prices
Median sales price is that price at which half the sales
occurred for more and half for less. It typically conceals a large variety of
different prices in the underlying individual sales, and can also be affected
by other factors besides changes in home values, such as seasonality and large
changes in the distressed, luxury-home or new-construction segments of the
market. Short-term fluctuations are much less meaningful than longer-term
Average Dollar per Square Foot on Sale
This statistic is based upon interior living space and doesn’t
include garages, basements, decks, patios or rooms built without permit.Typically, square footage figures come from
appraisals or tax records, but square footage can be measured in different ways
and the figures can be unreliable. Also, a fair percentage of listings don’t even
report square footage so the statistic is only based on those sales that do. These
values should be considered very general statistical approximations.
Percentage of Sales Sold over List Price
Large percentages of sales in which the price is bid up above asking price usually signifies spirited
buyer competition for new listings. Before 2012, this percentage typically ran between 30%
and 40% of sales. It has climbed to new heights in recent years. This is another statistic that is affected by seasonality: Higher percentages in spring and autumn, lower during the summer and winter holidays.
Median Percentage of Sales Price to List
This statistic is becoming distorted because many SF listing
agents are underpricing, and sometimes egregiously underpricing, their listings.
Still, sales prices consistently well above asking prices are a classic sign of
a very hot real estate market.
Median Days on Market
Under 30 days is considered a fast moving market. Below 20
days reflects extremely high buyer demand for new listings. This figure would
be even lower except that many San Francisco agents prefer to show their
listings for 10 to 14 days before the seller even reviews offers, so as to
fully expose the home to as many prospective buyers as possible and thus maximize
the potential of a bidding war.
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)
measures how long it would take to sell the existing inventory of listings for
sale at current rates of market activity. Typically, under 3 months of inventory is considered a
seller’s market; 2 months or less signify an extreme seller’s market.
Home Sales by Price Range
A snapshot of annual District 5 sales by price segment.
Average & Median Sales Prices & Average Dollar per Square Foot
The statistics of value in the charts following -- average and median sales prices and average dollar per square foot -- can change depending on a number of market factors (seasonality, inventory available to purchase, the average size of the homes sold within a given time frame), but the general price trend is clearly and dramatically upward. High demand plus low supply equals higher prices. When neighborhoods are grouped together below, it is because they generally share similar market values in particular property types. Quarterly and annual statistics, because of the much greater amount of data, are typically more reliable than (fluctuating) monthly stats -- but all statistics should be considered generalities.
Noe Valley, Eureka Valley (Castro), Dolores Heights: House Values by Year
These neighborhoods within District 5 generate the largest number of sales and the market here has been red hot since 2012 began.
Cole Valley, Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights, Corona Heights: House Values by Year
This "greater Cole Valley" and Clarendon Heights area has a very distinctive neighborhood feel and the market here is also red hot. Houses here are on average much larger than in the Noe Valley-Eureka Valley neighborhoods, so their average sales price is much higher, but since, all things being equal, a larger house will sell for a lower dollar per square foot value, that value statistic typically runs lower.
Condo Values in Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys; Ashbury Heights; Buena Vista & Duboce Triangle
These District 5 neighborhoods are grouped together because their condo values are similar, though as is almost always the case in San Francisco, they include a wide variety of property sizes, styles and quality.
Glen Park House Values by Year
Though adjacent to Noe Valley, home values in Glen Park are not as high, but prices here are also rapidly rising. Glen Park statistics fluctuate more than some other neighborhoods because the sizes of houses here vary so widely -- thus the statistics vary simply based upon what houses happen to sell within a given time period.
2-4 Unit Building Sales in District 5
District 5 is filled with buildings of 2 to 4 units, though as time has passed more and more of them have been turned into TICs and condominiums (which increases the value of the properties).
Luxury Home Sales
Higher end home sales in the Noe Valley, Eureka Valley, Cole Valley and associated neighborhoods of Realtor District 5 dramatically surged in 2011 - 2015. Though prices are still lower than in the old-prestige, northern neighborhoods such as Pacific and Presidio Heights, this area is playing a greater and greater role in luxury home segment. High-tech buyers are definitely playing a major role in this dynamic.