1st Quarter 2013 Market Report; Partially Updated June 2012
In 2012, the market turned with a vengeance and grew very hot very quickly. Now in 2013 it has grown even hotter. Recent deal-making stories almost make the seemingly crazy, multiple-offer tales of last year appear sedate. The supply of listings is drastically low against buyer demand, and the pace of price appreciation looks to be accelerating. Some city neighborhoods appear to be surpassing the previous peak values reached in 2007-2008. As seen below, the first quarter’s numbers reveal a big increase in home values year over year; the months of March, April and May individually saw particularly significant jumps in median price. We'll have to wait and see if this is a springtime blip or reflects the new baseline for SF home values. On the street, the market is certainly red hot, some might say over-heated.
Sales prices reflect the heat of the market 4-8 weeks earlier, when the offers were actually negotiated. Much of the first quarter’s sales data reflects offers negotiated in late 2012. March and April's closed sales reflect accepted-offer activity in the early months of 2013. In a rapidly changing market, we’re always looking in the rearview mirror.
If you adjust your screen view to a Zoom of 125%, the charts will be that much easier to read. In Windows systems, you can do this by pressing the Control and + keys simultaneously.
How Does Supply & Demand Affect San Francisco Home Prices?
The past 18 months give a text book example of how the supply and demand dynamic affects home values. Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) measures the strength of buyer demand against the available inventory of homes to purchase: the lower the MSI, the hotter the market. The hotter the market, the greater the upward pressure on prices.
Median Home Sales Prices by Month
One can see the acceleration in monthly median sales price in the chart above.
And this chart below breaks out the median sales prices of houses and condos separately by quarter.
The Percentage of Listings Selling Over & Under List Price
As shown in the chart above, as the market has strengthened, the percentage of SF homes selling for over -- and sometimes far over -- list price, has soared to almost unbelievable levels. In the last 2 months, 30% of SF house sales have sold for 15% or more above asking price.
And this chart below for 1st quarter sales, shows the effect of price reductions -- not pricing the property correctly to begin with -- on sales price to original list price percentages and days on market. The huge percentage of listings selling quickly, at an average of 5% over the list price, and the small percentage of listings expiring (without selling), are further indications of a very hot real estate market.
30 Year Mortgage Rates over Time
Another huge factor in the market rebound is the historically low interest rates, which have made a huge impact on the ongoing cost of home ownership.
Inventory of Listings Available to Purchase
This chart above shows the huge decline in inventory since the market turnaround began. Typically, we see a surge in early spring. Not this year, at least not so far.
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers is another excellent indicator of demand vs. supply, and it is now at the highest levels in memory for virtually all property types: houses, condos, TICs and the luxury home segment.
Average Days on Market
Generally speaking, the hotter the market, the faster listings go into contract and that is what we are indeed seeing now.
Months Supply of Inventory
This chart above breaks out the details of the huge decline in Months Supply of Inventory since the market started to recover.
Our real estate statistics in San Francisco are based upon that relatively unique basket of homes that happen to sell within any given period, so instead of being exact measurements applicable to specific properties, they should be considered approximations of the direction and scale of market trends.
These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to contact us.
Median price is that price at which half the sales occurred above and half below. Median prices and other value-related statistics can fluctuate for other reasons beside changes in value, such as seasonality, financing conditions, available inventory, variations in buyer profile, and changes in the distressed and luxury home markets. In those areas significantly affected, distressed-property sales exaggerated the decline in home values for non-distressed homes, and now, as the distressed segment rapidly declines, the increase in home values may be similarly exaggerated. Short term fluctuations in statistical measurements should be taken with a grain of salt until substantiated over the longer term.
© Paragon Real Estate Group, April-May 2013