The San Francisco Luxury Home Market
Homes of $2 Million & Above
Auto-Updating Market Analytics
The bar charts compare year-over-year data, going back 2 years, for the latest
month. The line charts track monthly data over a period of 3 to 5 years. Note
that it can take 7 to 15 days after a month’s end for agents to enter in transaction
data pertinent to the month in question, so statistics for the latest month can sometimes change significantly as this data
is added to calculations.
Seasonality can play a significant role in many real estate
statistics as the market ebbs and flows during active and less active sales
seasons. Typically, the market is most active in the spring and fall, and
slower in the summer and, especially, the mid-winter holidays. The luxury home
market is even more deeply affected by seasonality than the general market.
To keep things simple, we have, rather arbitrarily, designated homes of $2 million and above as luxury homes. The threshold should be higher for houses (probably in the $2.5m to $3m range), and somewhat lower than $2m for condos, but then we couldn't get both property types on the same charts. (Stock co-ops and TICs, much smaller market segments, are not included in these calculations.) Needless to say, what one gets for one's money in different neighborhoods varies enormously. Statistics are generalities, most useful for illustrating general market trends.
Moving your cursor across any line chart will pull up month by month data.
It may take these auto-updating charts a few moments to load onto the webpage.
New Listings Coming on Market, by Month
September is usually the single biggest month for new high-end home listings.
Spring is typically the most active season for new listings.
New listing activity plunges during the mid-summer and mid-winter holidays.
Total Number of Active Listings for Sale at End of Month
Number of Listings Accepting Offers during Month
Number of Sales, by Month
Closed sales typically reflect accepted-offer activity in the previous month or so.
Percentage of Listings Selling for over Final Asking
Price, by Month
It is typically buyer competition for new listings that generates sales prices over list prices.
Median Percentage of Final List Price Achieved on Sale
Over 100% signifies overbidding. Well over 100% means a very hot, competitive market.
Under 100% signifies more aggressive buyer negotiation.
Median Dollar per Square Foot (upon Sale)
Many of the condos selling for over $2m really belong to the "ultra-luxury" class: gorgeous,
high-floor units with staggering views, in very prestigious areas and buildings. Generally
speaking, such units achieve the highest dollar per square foot values in San Francisco.
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI), by Month
This MSI calculation compares the number of active listings at the end
of the month with the number of accepted offers over the previous 12 months.
The lower the MSI, the greater the buyer demand as compared
the inventory of listings available to buy.
Median Days on Market before Acceptance of Offer
This statistic only reflects those listings that do indeed sell, i.e.
generally speaking, those that the market deems most attractive and well priced.
: Confusingly, different analytical systems sometimes define (or calculate) certain common statistics - such as Months Supply of Inventory, Days on Market, and Dollar per Square Foot values - in different
ways, which, of course, will yield different results. Which is why looking at trends
is typically the best use of general statistics. The charts above were generated using the Infosparks system (we also sometimes use Broker Metrics or MLS generated statistics), and the parameters for its calculations can be found here: Infosparks statistical
Expensive Home Sales by San Francisco District
Note that these charts use different price points for the "luxury home" breakout of sales.
Other reports you might find interesting:
for General SF Market
30+ Years of San
Francisco Real Estate Cycles
San Francisco Neighborhood
10 Big Factors behind the San Francisco Real
Bay Area Apartment
Link to San
Francisco Neighborhood Map
It is the relationship
between supply and demand that defines the state of the market. Looking at one statistic such as the number of sales, without comparing it to how many listings were available to purchase, may give a distorted view of market conditions. Some statistics, such as months supply of inventory take both supply and demand into account. Last but not least, short-term statistics sometimes fluctuate without great meaningfulness - longer-term trends are always most meaningful.
Sales data usually reflects market activity, i.e. when a new
listing comes on market and offers are negotiated, occurring 4 to 8 weeks
before the sale date. Thus, for example, sales in June mostly reflect new
listings and offers negotiated in late April and May.
These charts were generated using the Infosparks system by
Paragon’s chief market analyst. The statistics only reflect activity reported
to MLS, and many new-project-condo sales are not reported to MLS. Data is from
sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.