If you adjust your screen view (or zoom) to 125%, the following charts and maps will be that much easier to read. On Windows systems, this can be accomplished by holding down the Control and + (plus sign) keys simultaneously.
Here is a look at how a diverse group of major and minor organizations
have recently ranked San Francisco on a wide variety of important and whimsical
measures. Where disagreements existed -- 3 different surveys ranked SF as the 1st,
2nd and 3rd “Greenest City” in America, and 2 surveys
ranked us as second and third smartest city in the country -- we naturally chose
the highest grade as most accurate.
Median Home Sales Prices around the Bay Area
This mapped analysis calculates median prices from both
distressed and non-distressed property sales around the Bay Area as reported to
MLS. Median price is a very general statistic and many cities include districts
of wildly varying value. For example, San Francisco contains neighborhoods
whose median prices vary by over $4,000,000: The overall statistic mixes them
all up together and comes up with $810,000. Maps with SF neighborhood values
are included later in this report.
Please note that SF median home sales prices vary on some of the charts following, depending on whether the price specified is for both distressed and non-distressed properties together, only non-distressed homes, for the last 4 months of 2012 or for the last quarter of the year, or whether price limits were placed on the analysis (limiting sales to under a certain sales price). This is natural: the statistics will change a little depending on the parameters of the analysis, and it's always useful to look at market statistics from slightly different angles.
The 2012 Rebound
Exactly a year ago, we suggested that, based upon the changing
market and economic dynamics we perceived developing in 2011, the SF real
estate market was on the cusp of a major turnaround in 2012, possibly similar
to what occurred in 1996 when the market blasted off after years of doldrums. And
that is what happened, not only for the city, which led the way early in the
year, but for the Bay Area, state and country a bit later. Note that the SF
house median price quoted here for 2012 is for 4th quarter non-distressed
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
This one statistic provides the context for the entire market: ferocious, pent-up buyer demand meets an inadequate inventory of homes for sale, which leads to much more competition for listings and strong upward pressure on prices.
San Francisco House & Condo Values by
Median Sales Price Changes by Quarter
Year over Year Changes in Value
Generally speaking, and depending on neighborhood and
property type, home values in San Francisco increased in the 10% to 20% range
in 2012. Here are the year over year changes in the three major statistics used
to measure overall home values, first for condos and then for houses.
2012 San Francisco Home Sales by Property Type
With the addition of the large, new condo developments in
the last ten years – especially in the SoMa – South Beach area, condos have become
the single biggest component of home sales by property type in the city. Now
that new construction development is taking off again, this trend will only
accelerate in future years.
2012 San Francisco Home Sales by Price Range
One client once described this chart as the “high-heel shoe”
graph of San Francisco home prices.
2012 San Francisco Home Sales by District
San Francisco Unit Home Sales Rebound
In the past couple years, SF home sales have bounced back
from the large decline subsequent to the housing bubble beginning to deflate in
2007 and then totally popping in September 2008. However, the number of sales
would certainly have been much higher in the city in 2012 if the inventory of
homes available to purchase had not been so drastically low. Supply did not
keep up with demand, which was one of the pressures leading to higher prices.
San Francisco Luxury Home Sales Rebound
The luxury home market rebounded in a big way in 2012, and
this chart does not include off-market sales of high-end homes (deals made
without the property being listed on MLS), of which there were an unusually high
number in the past year.
2012 Largest San Francisco Home Sales by Neighborhood
Distressed Home Sales: Goodbye to All That
Distressed home sales -- bank owned and short sales – have been
an aberration in the market caused by the housing bubble’s collapse in loan
underwriting standards and the widespread overuse of refinancing opportunities
during those bubble years. By definition they acted as a distortion of fair
market values, the definition being “the price a willing, able and reasonably
knowledgeable buyer would pay to a seller not under distress.” Everything about
distressed sales radiated distress: underwater sellers, overwhelmed and
unresponsive banks, and often the condition of the homes themselves: Buyers
demanded a huge discount to deal with them. Most affluent neighborhoods were
relatively unaffected by the distressed market, while many less affluent
neighborhoods were hammered. In any case, with the 2012 market recovery, the distressed
home market is rapidly dwindling and, on current course, should soon disappear
Active Listings for Sale
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)
Average Days on Market (DOM)
Statistics are generalities and should be considered
approximations: How they apply to any specific property is unknown.These analyses were performed in good faith
with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and
are subject to revision. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to
Real Estate Group, January 2013